Gallup Should he really be such a tight odds-on favourite? One statistic about US politics that has been bandied about quite a lot recently is that no US president since Franklin Roosevelt has been re-elected with the unemployment rate above 7.2%. The figure for this month is 9.2%. It will take some turnaround for the rate to get back down by November next year, particularly in light of the sluggish growth figures released there this week. As they say in…
Henry G Manson on a possible Blue-Yellow clash So far public tensions and skirmishes between the two Coalition parties have centred on social policy such as on the NHS or democratic reform such as AV and the House of Lords. The greatest unity appears has been on the government’s economic agenda despite significant pre-election differences between the parties. That could soon change. There has been a growing frequency number of nods and winks from the Treasury that George Osborne intends…
What happens when we are nice to our opponents PB regulars used to the hurly-burly of many of the site’s threads might have been shocked to read what happened overnight. After a heated and fractious discussion following the latest hacking story the former Labour MP and contributor here since 2004, Nick Palmer, suggested that we all look at our political opponents and try to write something positive. Extraordinarily people followed the suggestion and peace broke out. It was as though…
Obviously developments in the hacking story are making the running in the newsrooms tonight and no doubt it will feature prominently both on the front pages and at the top of TV news bulletin running orders. What I can’t work out is what this does to the hacking saga apart just reinforcing people’s views. Very little surprises us any more. @MikeSmithsonPB
Will we start to get an idea in September? On September 12th or 13th the boundary commissioners for England will produce their first proposals on how the electoral map should be re-drawn for the 2015 general election. The Scottish proposals are due out in October and the Welsh ones now look set to be published at about the same time. These will be critical documents and will allow Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus, Anthony Wells of YouGov UKPollingReport and others…
Is the mayor scheming to get Dave’s job? What is Boris Johnson up to? With the London Olympics being only a year off he’s hardly been off our screens and even before that he was getting attention putting forward his plan to deal with Britain’s growth challenge. The fact that his proposals were out of kilter with current coalition policy is neither here nor there. Just look at his responses in the final minute or so of the John Snow’s…
Why so little interest? With one year to go until the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in London, a YouGov shows British divided over support for the Games and the benefits hosting will bring. 40% are interested in the London Olympic Games with one year to go 44% think London should have bid for the Games, 42% disagree 55% think the Games will be good for London generally Athletics is the most popular sport with 68% choosing it as…
Will October 2013 be the critical moment? At a briefing suggestion on the boundary review this lunch-time a leading Tory insider suggested that the most critical issue for the future of the coalition will be the vote on the new boundaries that is expected to take place in October 2013 (Note that the vote due then is not on the legislation which has already been agreed and enacted. Rather it on the the detailed proposals to redraw the electoral map….