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My 100/1 shot wins Colorado It’s been a dramatic, and for me enormously profitable, night in the US election campaign. Three states were up for grabs in GOP race and all three went to Rick Santorum. Missouri, which had a non-binding primary, saw the former Pennsylvania senator come in with 55% of the vote to Romney’s 25% Minnestota’s caucuses saw an emphatic victory for Santorum with Ron Paul beating Romney for second place. Most sensational of all Colorado has been…

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Staying up late on Tuesday nights to watch more results in the US election has almost become routine. For me this is a big betting night having got on Santorum in both Minnesota and Missouri at quite nice odds. If the polling is right then I win a very nice sum and the pleasure of having spotted the potential for the ex Senator from Pennsylvania at quite an early stage. I also laid Romney (for non betting folk this is…

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The final plan could go to MPs June 2013 It is my understanding from a party official who is close to what is going on is that the process of agreeing the new electoral map is progressing much faster than had been expected. The result is that the crucial commons vote to rubber stamp the plan could take place in June/July 2013, three months ahead of schedule. The commissioners have been helped by there being far fewer objections than had…

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Missouri primary Santorum likely to win Missouri where he has 45% to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Ron Paul: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/b… — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) February 7, 2012 Minnesota Caucuses Santorum has good chance to win MN where he leads with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt, 20% for Paul: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/b… — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) February 7, 2012 Colorado Caucuses Romney should pick up win in CO where he has 37% to 27% for Santorum, 21% for Gingrich, and…

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Update 6th Feb – Tories ahead by 1 – Latest YouGov/Sun results 6th Feb CON 41%, LAB 40%, LD 8%; APP -22 y-g.co/AtHnZr #UKPolitics — YouGov (@YouGov) February 6, 2012 Tonight’s YouGov is in the tweet above. I’m a bit disappointed that we haven’t got a national telephone poll tonight. It used to be that the first Monday in the month was the slot for Populus. There’s some other polling due from the US about the three states which are…

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Betfair Politics As I’ve explained before I’m not betting on outcomes in the GOP race but where I think the short-term movements in the betting will be. The idea is to try to back at a long price and then lay as sentiment changes and the price moves in. There are elections in three states tomorrow and if the polling is correct then Santorum could pick up two of them. If that happened he will, surely, edge the fading Gingrich…

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BBC Could the YES vote be affected by possible downgrading? The front page of the Financial Times this morning is carrying a story by its Economics Editor, Chris Giles, about the sovereign debt rating that a new independent Scotland would receive. Giles writes that the paper has been told that an independent Scotland would not be able to count on receiving triple A status – something that could potentially lead to higher borrowing costs. His report goes on:- “Scotland could…

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Why would Labour support a Tory call for an election? My previous article on Iain Martin’s Sunday Telegraph suggestion that there might be an early election has prompted him to respond on his blog with a post headed “Early elections and the fallacy of fixed parliaments”. But in neither his Telegraph article nor his blog does he have a convincing explanation as to how MPs would vote by the required two-thirds majority to by-pass the fixed term parliament legislation. For…

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