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…. What is his least worst option and will he pick it? The Conservatives entered the 2010 election campaign with ambitious plans to make significant reforms to the NHS, education provision and welfare and benefits – three of the biggest spending departments of government – on top of tackling the deficit and re-establishing economic stability after the biggest boom and bust since the War. It would have been an ambitious agenda for a single-party government with a majority. In retrospect,…

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But will he survive the expected Romney negative barrage? A new poll from American Research Group ahead of the March 6 Tennessee primary suggests that Rick Santorum, has a clear margin over Romney. He’s on 34%, Mitt on 27%, Newt at 16% and Paul on 13%. The fieldwork was all carried out after the outcomes in this week’s three state nominating contests were known and clearly he’s getting a boost. What’s significant about Tennessee is that this was a state…

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Can he survive if his plans are scrapped? According to the Guardian ConservtiveHome will be publishing an editorial today calling for Andrew Lansley’s NHS bill to be scrapped. The report by Patrick Wintour and Juliette Jowit goes on: “It is understood that Conservative Home has been urged to make the call by three cabinet members who believe David Cameron is not listening on the issue. One source said: “We have almost been instructed to write this.” It is extraordinary that…

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Once again welcome to PBs regular overnight thread where the emphasis is on the informal. After staying up all night on Tuesday I’m still a bit knackered and won’t be joining the conversation – but have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Is it now ConHome versus Lansley’s NHS changes? Can the healthsec survive if the plans are scrapped? bit.ly/y99RIG — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) February 10, 2012

Betfair Politics The chart shows Betfair’s changing prices on which party will win the November White House race. The graph says it all – since the Republican nomination started in the first week of January the betting has moved more and more towards Barack Obama and, as I write, the price is 8/15. There have recently been one or two good pieces of economic news for the White House The latest unemployment numbers were a real positive. A big factor,…

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The Guardian’s Polly Toynbee tweet Sunday February 5th Vote here at the BMJ site on whether the NHS and Social Care Bill should be withdrawnbmj.com — Polly Toynbee (@pollytoynbee) February 5, 2012 Press Association report 8 February 2012 02:54 “..More than 90% of readers of the British Medical Journal (BMJ) believe the Government’s health reforms should be scrapped, according to a poll. Of 2,947 votes cast on bmj.com over the last week, 2,706 said the reforms should go while 241…

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Well done to the betting exchange The big political betting news tonight is that the disputed Iowa caucus markets has now been settled by Betfair who have paid out to Santorum punters. This will have cost them a fair packet because they originally settled in favour of Romney backers after the numbers on the night pointed to him having won the state by just eight votes. This wasn’t the certified result and by the time the process of verification had…

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