Welcome to PB NightHawks
Welcome once again to PB’s overnight open thread in the relaxing atmosphere of the PB NightHawks cafe.
Why aren’t SNP voters backing Salmond on independence?
What happens if defeat looks certain? One electoral fact that hasn’t been given much attention is that the SNP’S vote share in the Scottish council elections on May 3rd was 13% down on what Salmond’s party secured a year earlier in the Holyrood elections. In 2011 it was 45% while in 2012 it was 32%. Not only did the SNP fail to take its much hyped key target of Glasgow it saw the city’s council move back to Labour overall…
Is this the man who should be in Number 11 ?
The economic and political narrative has changed markedly for the government since the budget, and deteriorated further when it was officially declared that we were in a double dip recession. Last night’s u-turns on pasties and caravans have added to that poor narrative (Pasty la vista, Taxman as The Sun’s front page put it) The ComRes polling last night also shows Osborne’s problem Some 72 per cent of the public agree that it is time for the Coalition to change its policy…
Labour lead down to 8 with ComRes phone poll
Conservatives 34 (+1) Labour 42 (-1) Lib Dems 11 (nc) Others 13 (nc) The changes are from the last ComRes telephone poll which was carried out in March. There is a large gender gap: 40 per cent of male voters will vote Conservative, 39 per cent  Labour and 8 per cent Lib Dem. But only 29 per cent of women voters  will vote Conservative, while 45 per cent  will vote Labour, and 14 per cent Lib Dem. On the economy. Seven…
Markets on Greece
IG have put up a couple of markets in the past week regarding Greece. The bets can be located in their binary betting market section. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.
How does the coalition untangle itself before the election?
It seems very unlikely that the coalition parties will have an electoral pact/coupon at the next general election, so Vince Cable’s comments on the BBC last night confirm that (if confirmation was needed). He said “Everybody involved knows that before the next general election – the two parties will have to establish their own separate platforms and identity but how that disengagement takes place, over what time period is very much an issue for the future, certainly not something we’re talking…
Continuation Thread
Ed retains his YouGov leadership lead for a third week.
The Leadership scores David Cameron is on minus 26 (minus 30 last week) Ed Miliband is on minus 23 (minus 27 last week) Nick Clegg is on minus 55 (minus 56 last week) Other yougov polling. The coverage of Cameron “chillaxing” doesn’t seem to have done any particular damage – only 33% say that he doesn’t work hard enough, compared to 39% who think he gets the balance right and 4% who think he works too hard. The YouGov VI…