Is 6/4 a good value bet? Ladbrokes has a bet at 6/4 that an MP will defect to UKIP before the general election. It looks like a reasonable punt. The problem for potential MP defectors is that UKIP has never even come within a whisker of winning a Westminster seat and the chances of holding on at a general election must be low. So a potential defector would have to factor in losing both their job and parliamentary salary. As…
Welcome to the best overnight political conversation on the net. With the elections we’ve not been here for a week or so – but NightHawks makes a return tonight, Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads
The boundary changes could be postponed in exchange for the LDs holding back on Lord reform. Winner=Ed Miliband bit.ly/IS9SWc — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that LAB can win overall majority with just 3% lead. CON needs 11% lead. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that Nadine’s seat is safe for next time. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 See Gary Gibbon’s post…
Is it the polling that binds them together? This afternoon’s political story is the joint event in Essex by Dave and Nick plan to “re-launch” the coalition. The event comes just three days before the second anniversary of the creation of the pact. The fact that both feel the need to “re-launch” is a sign surely that things are not going well. This unlikely marriage is going through a stormy patch. Both parties got totally smashed in Thursday local elections…
.. Has he now the numbers to threaten Mitt? Three months I put the maximum that Ladbrokes would allow me on Rand Paul, son of Ron, to be the Republican V-P nominee. The odds then were a tasty 50/1. Overnight I bet again on Rand with Betfair at a nice 44/1. I decided to risk more money because of some remarkable moves in the Republican nomination race by the enthusiastic and hugely well organised band of Ron Paul supporters For…
Election outcome < New boundaries Old boundaries LAB MAJORITY LAB LEAD 4.3% LAB LEAD 3% LAB MOST SEATS CON LEAD below 2.2% CON LEAD below 4% CON MOST SEATS CON LEAD above 2.2% CON LEAD 4% CON MAJORITY CON LEAD above 7.4% CON LEAD 11% The LDs are MORE likely to vote for the boundary changes One massive issue festering in the background at Westminster is the change to the boundaries which according to the projections from YouGov’s Anthony Wells...
XE.com 0910 BST The Greek & French elections: The response on the markets The pound has been moving sharply upwards overnight against the Euro and at one stage touched 1.25 Euros to the pound. It’s now edged down a touch but the big trend can be seen in the chart above. As someone planning to go to Spain in a fortnight this is really good news for me and other holidaymakers but what of the other consequences? Won’t we hear…