Betfair punters still make Romney just a 33 percent shot

Betfair punters still make Romney just a 33 percent shot

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Betfair Politics Is Romney’s price almost bound to tighten? There’s a new Gallup poll out that gives the presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, a nine point lead on the economy. The latest daily tracker poll from the firm has Romney on 47% to Obama’s 44%. In many key state races the margins are very tight yet, overall, punters on Betfair continue to put their money on the incumbent. The chart above shows the trend and there’s been almost no real…

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Have the blues been pinning too much on geeky EdM?

Have the blues been pinning too much on geeky EdM?

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Is the Labour leader now looking like a winner? Earlier in the week the Speccie’s Fraser Nelson yesterday summed up neatly the Tory view of the next general election:- “Much of the Cameroon’s re-election hopes are pinned on the idea that their boss will trounce the geeky Ed Miliband. Nowadays, the argument goes, these ex-special advisers who have no charisma and alarming leftist policies just don’t win modern elections.” That view might have had some merit before George Osborne’s budget…

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Marf on the pressures piling on to Dave

Marf on the pressures piling on to Dave

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This is how Marf describes her drawing:- In the cartoon, Cameron’s been struggling to rewrite the Queen’s Speech all night …. With Europe, Greece and France swinging to left and hovering in a sinister way, and Boris and Nick Clegg (the cat wearing the yellow tie) staring, taunting. Honestly it couldn’t be the easiest time for Cameron. I have him dressed as an eighteenth-century gentleman because his Bullingdon dress still evokes so much about his character and outlook – hard…

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What are the chances of an MP defection to UKIP?

What are the chances of an MP defection to UKIP?

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Is 6/4 a good value bet? Ladbrokes has a bet at 6/4 that an MP will defect to UKIP before the general election. It looks like a reasonable punt. The problem for potential MP defectors is that UKIP has never even come within a whisker of winning a Westminster seat and the chances of holding on at a general election must be low. So a potential defector would have to factor in losing both their job and parliamentary salary. As…

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The return of the PB NightHawks Cafe

The return of the PB NightHawks Cafe

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Welcome to the best overnight political conversation on the net. With the elections we’ve not been here for a week or so – but NightHawks makes a return tonight, Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads

Gary Gibbon says a boundary changes/Lords reform pact is being discussed

Gary Gibbon says a boundary changes/Lords reform pact is being discussed

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The boundary changes could be postponed in exchange for the LDs holding back on Lord reform. Winner=Ed Miliband bit.ly/IS9SWc — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that LAB can win overall majority with just 3% lead. CON needs 11% lead. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that Nadine’s seat is safe for next time. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 See Gary Gibbon’s post…

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Dave & Nick go to Essex to renew their marriage vows….

Dave & Nick go to Essex to renew their marriage vows….

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Is it the polling that binds them together? This afternoon’s political story is the joint event in Essex by Dave and Nick plan to “re-launch” the coalition. The event comes just three days before the second anniversary of the creation of the pact. The fact that both feel the need to “re-launch” is a sign surely that things are not going well. This unlikely marriage is going through a stormy patch. Both parties got totally smashed in Thursday local elections…

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