Can the coalition survive a Lords reform defeat?

Can the coalition survive a Lords reform defeat?

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Where will things stand after tonight? The time-table motion on the Lords reform bill is taking on a significance way beyond the procedural measures for the passage of the bill for which it is ostensibly about. Without that in place the measure, backed I’m told by 17 Tory cabinet ministers, will have real trouble progressing through the commons and the chances of it being enacted will look even slimmer. The bigger question will be what it does to the coalition….

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Why I’m not following politics at the moment

Why I’m not following politics at the moment

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The greatest day in British cycling ever Forgive me if my eye has been off the ball in the world of politics at the moment. The big, indeed overwhelming, sporting passion of my life has for nearly half a century been cycling and the UK is going through an extraordinary period. The general public became aware of it for the first time with the amazing performances, under the eye of David Brailsford, of the British cycling squad at the Beijing…

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The money now goes on a government defeat

The money now goes on a government defeat

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There’s been a big swing-round at Ladbrokes on the outcome of the crucial time-table motion on the Lords reform bill. This morning it looked, from the betting, that the government would win and it was an odds-on bet. Now that’s all changed and Ladbrokes are offering just 4/6 that ministers will be defeated. You can get 11/10 that the time-table motion will survive. The reform proposals, which are reported to have had the backing of 17 Conservative ministers in cabinet,…

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Lords Reform: The money goes on the Government avoiding defeat

Lords Reform: The money goes on the Government avoiding defeat

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Is this a case where the betting is predictive? The government is odds-on to avoid defeat in the Commons on the Lords’ timetable motion according to Ladbrokes. The book opened at an entirely level 5/6 each of two but all the money so far is against the defeat, forcing the price into 4/5. Those who think the government will lose can take bigger odds of evens. It also remains odds-on at 1/2 that no direct elections for the House of…

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A question on boundaries

A question on boundaries

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@thetomslatter It is reckoned that if the 2010 election had been fought on the planned boundaries then the Tories might have won a majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2012

Why I’m betting on Condi to be Mitt’s running mate

Why I’m betting on Condi to be Mitt’s running mate

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Is she the woman Ann Romney was hinting about? Ever since Ann Romney’s July 4th TV interview in which she hinted that her husband might choose a woman as his running mate there’s been a lot of speculation over who that could be. The questions are how much can we read into her comment and who could she be talking about? One piece I found persuasive is this from the respected commentator William Kristol in which he looks at the chances of…

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Will the new boundaries really make that much difference?

Will the new boundaries really make that much difference?

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Watch this 40 minute lecture from Michael Thrasher Professor Michael Thrasher, famed for being part of the Rallings & Thrasher duo, has produced an interesting video lecture on the bias that exists within the electoral system. It goes on for 40 minutes and is well worth watching by anybody interested in the UK electoral process. By way of introduction Michael Thrasher writes:- “An important feature of the UK voting system that causes a great deal of confusion is the operation…

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