Could the blues split themselves once again over the EU? If Dave thought that his Sunday Telegraph article on an EU referendum was going to deal with the growing pressure he was wrong. All it has done is open up new lines of attack and the weekend strategy looks as though it could have been a mistake. One of his beaten opponents in the 2005 leadership contest who became the first Tory to leave the cabinet, Liam Fox, has gone…
Could Mitt time as CEO be crucial in November? The big polling picture for November’s White House election is that Obama and Romney are running pretty close to each in what, in the parlance of US elections coverage, are described as “statistical ties”. But those polls are national ones and, as we all know, the outcome will be determined by individual state battles which in almost every case allocate their electoral college votes on a first past the post basis….
Welcome to the PB NightHawks Cafe Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Plus some other points from the polls Labour lead by 7 in SunTel/ICM ‘Wisdom Index’ poll Lab 38 (-1), Con 31 (-) LD 17 (+1) Voters asked to predict gen elex result — Patrick Hennessy (@PatJHennessy) July 1, 2012 @Joga5 In its final unpublished 2010 general election poll ICM says its Wisdom Index was more accurate than any of the pollsters — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2012 @MSmithsonPB ICM/Guardian pre-adjusted [Table 2] (vs wisdom) – Lib 12 (-5), Lab…
Will the time ever be right for it to be held? The big political news overnight is that Dave has said in an article under his name in the Telegraph that he’ll consider a referendum on the UK’s EU relationship. But there’s a catch. This will only happen when the time is right. To agree with the principle of doing something but with a caveat on the timing is the classic ruse used by politicians through the ages. The article…
Is he really so far ahead? According to the latest projection by Nate Silver the chances of Obama being re-elected are 68.8%. Nate, who now writes for the New York Times, has a complex formula based on polling and economic indicators. This latest projection comes in a great article from someone I rate highly – though I do wonder about rating chances to one decimal point. I have changed my betting on the race. The mood seems to be swinging…
Why is no-one talking about the double-dip? The revised growth figures released earlier this week showing the current recession to be deeper than previously thought passed with the sort of muted media comment that’s been was typical of the coverage of the current recession in general – you’d hardly know there is one. The media seems unable or unwilling to use it as a narrative within which to run other economic stories. Even Labour’s efforts to push the line are…
Yesterday’s by-elections (thanks to Andrea Parma) Charnwood – Sileby Con 703 Lab 450 BNP 93 LD 29 Con hold. Around 4% swing Con to Lab (all due to Con being 9 points down) compared to 2011 South Northamptonshire – Grange Park Con 313 LD 98 Con hold Blaby- Ravenhurst and Fosse Lab 1083 Con 501 Lab hold.10% swing Con to Lab compared to 2011 Chelmsford – Patching Hall LD 842 Con 488 Lab 309 UKIP 263 Green 84 LD hold….