Henry G Manson on a possible 2nd LAB by-election defeat There have been a very strong series of by-elections taking place in Labour – held seats over the last couple of years. More than I can recall. This puts a little pressure on the Labour side to win handsomely each time. The Corby by-election has been the exception and gives the party a chance to chalk up a thumping win in a seat the party must win in 2015 if…
White House punters are sticking firmly with Obama – see chart for Romney price moves of past 7 days twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2012 On Betfair alone there have been £11m of matched bets The chart is simply showing the Romney price on Betfair expressed as an implied probability. As can be seen that apart from the Romney bounce on Wednesday ahead of what turned out to be the non-announcement from Donald Trump, things have been static….
The latest POLITICO swing state map showing how tight this is gettinggoo.gl/7nHNu twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 New Ohio phone poll has Obama and Romney level. See pic @politicalwire twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
The rise of Tory toxicity? Ipsos-MORI data from 2007-2012 showing like and dislike of the Conservative party. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 Over the last couple of days there’s been a lot of focus on the Ipsos-MORI finding that more people now dislike David Cameron than like him. The same polling also produced findings on like and dislike of the Conservative party itself which were, perhaps, more worrying for the party. The chart above based on Ipsos-MORI…
The one certainty is that this is very tight Embedded above is the latest national polling average from Real Clear politics which has Romney edging further ahead and in doing so magnifying the paradox of this campaign. For the betting markets where punters invest real money on the outcome are moving even further to the incumbent. Until this morning it was still possible to get 1/2 on Obama on Betfair but that’s now at 0.46/1. One thing we do know…
“Cameron insisted that his own image dominate” this disastrous 2010 poster according to new book bit.ly/S1WWgD twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 27, 2012 How the last seven years have been seen by George Patrick O’Flynn in the Daily Express is reporting this morning that a new book on George Osborne by writer Janan Ganesh, could be damaging to David Cameron. According to O’Flynn the chancellor emerges as a towering figure “while the shortcomings of Dave” are dealt with at…
The betting sentiment continues to move against Mitt Romney. See pic for how his Betfair price has changed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Meanwhile the ad onslaught in the swing states continues In past month there have been 58,235 political TV ads in Ohio. To watch them all continuously would take 80 days.is.gd/jv1DW5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Latest swing state polls Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs) Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46%…
Good chart from Ipsos-MORI showing how satisfaction with all leaders is on the decline with Clegg the worst. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 As ever with the monthly Ipsos-MORI political monitor there’s a mass of data and colourful charts one of which is featured above. Also this moth the firm asked, for the first time since January 2011, the “Like him, like his party” question. We haven’t got the full detail but several bullet points are available…