David Herdson: Why there’ll be no EU referendum anytime soon

David Herdson: Why there’ll be no EU referendum anytime soon

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David Herdson argues that there’ll be no EU referendum anytime soon. goo.gl/L7flQ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2012 Where do we stand after the big vote? The Coalition’s reform requiring all future EU treaties that transfer power to the EU to be put to a referendum was intended both as a brake on UK involvement in EU integration, and as a landmine under the kind of government that might be inclined to do that – either they’d have…

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The Transatlantic betting gap grows even wider. Mitt 32.6 on Intrade but 22.2% on Betfair

The Transatlantic betting gap grows even wider. Mitt 32.6 on Intrade but 22.2% on Betfair

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The Intrade – Betfair gap gets much wider. Romney 32.6% on Intrade but 22.2% on the UK-based Betfair twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2012 A very common feature in the betting for next President is the huge gaps that we’ve seen between the markets like Intrade that have a lot of US customers and those, like Betfair, that don’t. The Romney price on Intrade has been fairly stable today as the chart shows but his nose-dive on Betfair…

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Did Cameron and Osborne over-celebrate the end of double-dip?

Did Cameron and Osborne over-celebrate the end of double-dip?

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Did Cameron and Osborne over-celebrate the end of double-dip? Henry G Manson thinks they did.goo.gl/1tf5m twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2012 Henry G Manson on the politics of the GDP figures So eager were the Conservatives to trumpet the latest quarter’s economic growth figures that David Cameron almost fell foul of the rules preventing him from breaching the official publication time. The Prime Minister told Ed Miliband in a heated exchange at Prime Ministers Question Time a fortnight…

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Mitt Romney’s Intrade price is moving downwards after its five point increase this morning

Mitt Romney’s Intrade price is moving downwards after its five point increase this morning

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Latest chart showing how the Intrade Romney price has moved back following its sharp increase this morning. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 The Betfair-Intrade split remains. Betfair makes him a 25% shot while Intrade has him at 32% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 So if you want to bet on Obama choose Intrade. Romney punters should got to Betfair Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK…

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Romney’s big hope is that Tues will see a polling disaster on the scale experienced in Britain at the 1992 election

Romney’s big hope is that Tues will see a polling disaster on the scale experienced in Britain at the 1992 election

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Remember when the pollsters made a hash of the 1992 election. Could that be happening in the US? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 The night when John Major defied all the predictions As can be seen from the screen-shot above the exit poll at the 1992 UK general election was very much out – as were, with one notable exception, every single campaign poll. Everything pointed in April 1992 to John Major losing and the then 13…

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The deluge of swing-state polling continues:- 21 of them tonight including 4 from Ohio

The deluge of swing-state polling continues:- 21 of them tonight including 4 from Ohio

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21 new swing state polls tonight including 4 from Ohio where Obama’s lead is being sustained pwire.at/YmSVYG twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2012 Obama’s position in Ohio seems to be being maintained PoliticalWire has 21 swing state polls including a batch fron Ohio. Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (We Ask America) Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Reuters/Ipsos) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling) Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of…

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