A night on the political betting markets – how punters called it faster than anybody.

A night on the political betting markets – how punters called it faster than anybody.

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UK-based punters beat the pundits Throughout the long night of the White House race the most striking feature for the punters was how the betting markets were much faster responding to events and the information available than any of the so-called pundits. As the news was coming in I Tweeted a number of shots showing the Romney price movement on Betfair and how sentiment moved so sharply away from the Republican challenger on the basis of the very first exit…

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Obama wins his second term after gaining the edge in the key swing states

Obama wins his second term after gaining the edge in the key swing states

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Obama wins – this is from ABC News. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2012 In the end the outcome came as as had been predicted for months. Obama had built up leads, albeit very small, in enough of the battle-ground state to push him over the 270 electoral college votes threshold. It was a tense night particularly over Ohio, Virginia and Florida and the margins were narrow. But Obama had chalked up enough victories in the other swing…

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As we approach the end of voting the Romney price edges up. Obama punters seem a bit nervous.

As we approach the end of voting the Romney price edges up. Obama punters seem a bit nervous.

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Romney making recovery on Betfair. Are Obama punters getting nervous? See Romney price chart over 12 hours twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 This is the timetable for tonight thanks to Politicalwire showing when voting ends in each state. 0000 GA, IN, KY, SC, VT, VA 0030 NC, OH, WV 0100 AL, CT, DE, DC, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN 0130 AR 0200 AZ, CO, KS, LA, MI, MN, NE,…

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Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

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Could Nadine’s suspension provoke her into switching to UKIP? Has the chief whip been too harsh? bit.ly/RGG3cR twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 Her suspension might just provoke a switch Ladbrokes have tonight tightened the odds to evens that there’ll be a defection to UKIP during this parliament. This follows the move by the Chief Whip to suspend Nadine Dorries as a Conservative MP because she’s taking part in he latest series of “I’m a celebrity get me…

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A Marf prediction cartoon and the PB-William Hill White House competition

A Marf prediction cartoon and the PB-William Hill White House competition

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This cartoon on forecasting the US election will be going up on Politicalbetting.com later. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 How do you think you are going to do? Election day and thanks to Marf for her cartoon on Nate Silver. As many will recall thanks to the generosity of William Hill we were able to launch in September the 2012 White House Race prediction competition. All you had to do was guess the vote share winner gap,down…

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