The Police Commissioner elections should add to LAB victories across the board on Thursday

The Police Commissioner elections should add to LAB victories across the board on Thursday

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LAB’s heading for huge wins in Thursday’s 3 by-election & the votes for the mayor of Bristol & 41 Police Commisioners twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012 If it goes the way of national polling then then 26 of the 41 of the new commissioners will be Labour Thursday is a very big election day across England and Wales with the exception of London. As well as the Corby, Manchester Central and Cardiff S by-elections, there’s biggest mayoral…

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According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

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Nate Silver: nyti.ms/Z6kbM7 The Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012 Which did best – which did worst? Nate Silver of the New York Times has produced the above polling accuracy table. He’s based it on surveys in the final three weeks rather than just the closing poll. Nate’s reasoning is that there’s a tendency, which we see in the UK as well, for pollsters to herd round…

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The turmoil at the BBC – the Marf view

The turmoil at the BBC – the Marf view

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As the BBC crisis deepens Marf gives her take in this cartoon twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2012 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.

David Herdson asks: Can anyone Unite the States again?

David Herdson asks: Can anyone Unite the States again?

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David Herdson looks at the implication of a divided United States. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53606 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2012 Have we seen the end of Presidential landslide victories? In the six presidential elections between 1964 and 1984, every state in the USA bar one (Arizona) voted at least once for a Republican and once for a Democrat. In the six most recent elections, between 1992 and 2012, only nineteen have done so. For the third time in four US…

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The defeat of Mitt Romney – now Newt Gingrich is getting the blame

The defeat of Mitt Romney – now Newt Gingrich is getting the blame

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Team Romney now blaming Newt Gingrich for the defeat. It was Newt who first played the Bain card. pwire.at/Rp7doy twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2012 But it was Romney who went negative first According to Fortune the Romney camapaign is now blaming Newt Gingrich for the defeat because he went big on attacking Mitt over Bain. The Romney campaign was well aware that Bain Capital would become a major issue in the general election. After all, the late…

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Suddenly New York Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand (50-1) is being talked about as the 2016 Democratic Party nominee

Suddenly New York Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand (50-1) is being talked about as the 2016 Democratic Party nominee

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My first Dem nomination 2016 bet: 66/1 on Sen Kirsten Gillibrand of NY – reelected on Tues with 72% of vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2012 Time to start thinking about 2016 There’s always something rather pleasurable about picking, at long odds, a party nominee or a president four years out. What you need is value – a long shot who might just do it for you. In 2005 I got on Barack Obama at 50/1. My…

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Henry G Manson assesses the implications for Labour of Clegg staying until 2015

Henry G Manson assesses the implications for Labour of Clegg staying until 2015

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Henry G Manson on the implications for Labour of Clegg staying until the general election. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53584 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2012 Any LAB-LD deal is dependent on Clegg going During this week’s Prime Minister’s Question Time Nick Clegg ruled himself as a future candidate for European Commissioner. The Lib Dem leader’s pro-European credentials were strong. He previously worked for Leon Brittan while he was a Commissioner and as an MEP for the East Midlands for five years….

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