Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

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What needs to change to win the key marginals? There was a fringe meeting at Conservative Party conference this autumn (see above) on how their party can win more votes and seats in the North. Without new boundaries it will be increasingly hard for the blue team to win a parliamentary majority without gaining more seats in the North of England, so it’s a live electoral issue. A recording of the debate has been posted online and it’s a good…

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Lynton Crosby’s biggest challenge? Turning round Dave’s “In touch with concerns of ordinary people” ratings

Lynton Crosby’s biggest challenge? Turning round Dave’s “In touch with concerns of ordinary people” ratings

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David Cameron’s YouGov “In touch with ordinary people” ratings Oct 2007 – Nov 2012 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2012 This has to be solved or the Tories have a Romney-type problem Looking back over the last months of the White House race the biggest problem the Republicans had was that their standard-bearer was not seen as being in touch or understanding the problems of the middle classes. This became the peg on which Obama’s successful get the…

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The point of this Michael Ashcroft poll from Mid Beds seems to be to get Nadine Dorries de-selected by the local Tories

The point of this Michael Ashcroft poll from Mid Beds seems to be to get Nadine Dorries de-selected by the local Tories

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An Ashcroft poll of Mid Beds voters has Nadine right at bottom on the positing/negative ratings. bit.ly/SdnU8b twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 There’s a new Michael Ashcroft poll just out taken in the ultra-safe blue seat of Mid-Befordshire where, of course, Nadine Dorries is MP. One set of question asked the sample of 1,500 to rate how positively or negatively a selection of prominent male politicians in comparison with Nadine. The figures are above. The danger is…

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If some of the polls are right UKIP could end up with more votes than the LDs – but not win a single seat

If some of the polls are right UKIP could end up with more votes than the LDs – but not win a single seat

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Labour lead at 8 in latest YouGovCON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 9%, UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 Ladbrokes make UKIP 9/2 to win more votes than the LDs at the general election. A good bet if polls are right. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 @mattstrong @msmithsonpb UKIP had 572 last time, virtually a full house. Will surely compete in all next time. — The Happy Tramp (@Happy_Tramp) November 22, 2012 Ladbrokes are offering…

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Nadine loses her “I’m a Celebrity” election – why the Tories should heed the wise words of Lyndon B Johnson

Nadine loses her “I’m a Celebrity” election – why the Tories should heed the wise words of Lyndon B Johnson

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The big overnight election news – Nadine first to be evicted see Metro. bit.ly/SbJ7PP twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 What is her political future? My guess is that the whips will be very mindful of the wise words from Lyndon B Johnson. If she was to be forced out of the party then she could be an even bigger headache for the blues. The following are the latest betting markets from Ladbrokes. The latest Nadine Dorries betting…

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How men and women are viewing politics differently from the huge 8,000 sample Michael Ashcroft poll

How men and women are viewing politics differently from the huge 8,000 sample Michael Ashcroft poll

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The gender voting intention split in the 8,103 sample in the Ashcroft phone poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012 We often talk about gender splits in different polls but as we all know subsets can be subject to quite large margins of errors. The new Michael Ashcroft telephone poll with its massive 8,103 sample should give us a better picture which is why I have highlighted the numbers. To put that into context the monthly ICM poll…

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A mediocre PMQ performance and the Ashcroft poll make it a tricky day for EdM

A mediocre PMQ performance and the Ashcroft poll make it a tricky day for EdM

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EdM’s poorest PMQs for some time. Didn’t seem to engage. Cameron meanwhile has a goodperformance. Dave 8/10 EdM 5/10 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012 My Tweet on PMQs gives my verdict – Cameron was much better and in greater control today while for Ed Miliband it was a PMQs to forget. Why he chose the NHS, something that is hardly a current issue, for a his round of questions really looked odd. It didn’t work. Also today…

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Rand Paul’s 2016 GOP nomination price moves into to 33-1 following TV comments that he’d be interested in running

Rand Paul’s 2016 GOP nomination price moves into to 33-1 following TV comments that he’d be interested in running

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Rand Paul,son of Ron,becomes the first to go public on his interest in GOP2016 nomination.I got 50/1 last night twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012 Last night I got a bet on at 50/1 with PaddyPower that Rand Paul, the son of 2012 GOP contender, Ron Paul, would be the nominee for the 2016 race. Thanks to HYUFD on the previous thread for tipping us off about Paul’s TV interview in which he spoke about his interest. This…

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