Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

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Punters not totally convinced that the coalition will go the full distance.See timing of election prices twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Should we be betting on a pre-2015 election? My view remains that the glue that bonds the coalition partners together is the LAB poll ratings. As long as it looks as though both coalition partners would be hammered then they are going to stick it out. Now if the Tories could stage a remarkable recovery then…

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EdM got the bottle to replace Ed Balls as shadow chancellor with his brother?

EdM got the bottle to replace Ed Balls as shadow chancellor with his brother?

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PaddyPower now make Ed Balls 6/1 to be next chancellor – that looks a good bet.bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 David Miliband is said to want to return PaddyPower is offering what seems a very generous price of 6/1 on Ed Balls becoming the next Chancellor. The chances must be that Osborne is NOT going replaced this side of the general election and LAB is in a strong position win most seats and possibly a majority….

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EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

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LAB set to double 2009 vote share according to first 2014 Euro election poll. Ukip up but in 3rd place behind CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Survation has UKIP up on 2009 but down to 3rd place My chart shows the findings of the weekend’s Survation poll on the 2014 Euro elections and compares the vote shares from June 2009 when the elections were last held. Then was very much a low point for the Brown…

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UKIP, the European elections in 2014 and beyond

UKIP, the European elections in 2014 and beyond

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In the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday, one of the supplementary questions asked about voting intentions in the 2014 European Parliament elections, UKIP are on the threshold of pushing the Conservatives into third place, the full results are below. Conservatives 24% Labour 31% Lib Dem 11% UKIP 22% Paddy Power have a market on which party will be the Largest UK party in European Parliament after the 2014 elections. Paddy Power are currently offering 3/1 on UKIP being the largest…

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The John Curtice quote that neatly sums up the current political landscape

The John Curtice quote that neatly sums up the current political landscape

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It all goes back to Osborne’s March 2012 budget Commenting on today’s Mail on Sunday Survation poll that has CON 29: LAB 38: LD 11: UKIP 16 Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said:- “…..an election that would otherwise look like a reasonably close contest looks like an easy walkover for Labour. Tory supporters have been unhappy with the Government ever since George Osborne’s omnishambles Budget. I would expect UKIP to fall away to some degree by the Election but…

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The first time incumbency bonus could make the Tory task of hanging on a bit easier

The first time incumbency bonus could make the Tory task of hanging on a bit easier

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The 1st time incumbency bonus that could make the Tory election challenge a bit easier. See chart. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55384 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2013 The above chart is based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and seeks to reflect the impact of incumbency at the general election. As can be seen the type of CON seat where the party did least well were in seats they were…

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Can the country get used to a long and slow squeeze?

Can the country get used to a long and slow squeeze?

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David Herdson on the politics of austerity Experts and others making New Year predictions are as much a tradition at the turning of the year as fireworks, soon-to-be-broken resolutions and loud but not entirely coherent renderings of Auld Lang Syne. Except where change – or at least, the clear opportunity for change – is scheduled, these predictions inevitably default to ‘much the same as last year’, and it’s almost certainly on that basis that both the government and opposition will…

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