Ladbrokes odds on many Tories will vote against/abstain on same sex marriage vote 2/1 0-150, 2/1 151-189, 6/4 181+ bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 And the latest polling on the issue YouGov finds strong support for same sex marriage – except with CON supporters twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013
Worrying story for LAB that party not picking up enough #GE2010 CON converts.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… . twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 The red team is too reliant on non #GE2010 voters and LDs There’s some worrying news for Labour this morning from a Fabian society study of the make-up of Labour’s current polling standing. It finds that the total of CON>LAB switchers since May 2010 has been just 400,000 voters. The study found that about 1.4m of thoose currently…
This is the Gove story that’s moved the next cabinet exit betting. Did Gove know? .. m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Is this really going to bring down the minister? Over the past few hours we’ve seen a lot of betting on Michael Gove being the next to leave the cabinet. This afternoon he was at 25/1. He then moved in to 8/1 and is now at 5/1. The devil is in the detail and Gove…
A reminder to Tory leadership plotters: The party is a drag on Dave not the other way round – See Ipsos-MORI polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Ladbrokes move the “Dave’ll be out” before #GE2015 odds in from 10/1 to 7/1. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Is Hillary Clinton going to run in #WH2016?On Betfair she’s 5/2 favourite to get nomination even though she’ll be 69 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Would this be a contest too far or success at last? After twenty years at or near the centre of US political life, and four years of Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton can now finally put her feet up and enjoy retirement. Or she can start seriously planning the presidential campaign everyone’s…
Nice chart from Ipsos-MORI showing the fortunes of the leaders since Jun 2010. Cameron is down nearly as much as Clegg twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013
Henry G Manson on Friday The fallout from the abandonment in boundary changes is already leading to recriminations. The latest upshot from the Conservative Party is to tap into the anger of large donors and target even more Liberal Democrat MPs held seats ahead of 2015. This will delight a number of Conservative MPs and the increasing number apparently frustrated with the Coalition. But it is not without risk. The firm assumption for some time has been that the Coalition…
Today’s LAB YouGov share up to 44% – 12% ahead of CON.Chart shows that the DC EU speech bounce is over twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2013 55% tell Ashcroft that they want a LAB maj or LAB-LD coalition Lord Ashcroft phone poll finds that 55% want a LAB majority or LAB-LD coalition. 45% want CON maj or CON-LD coalition twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2013 Lord Ashcroft poll finds that 30% want to see the…