Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4

Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4

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Note the other methodology qualifications On a night of many polls perhaps the most interesting and relevant to tomorrow’s local elections is the above one from ComRes online which was funded by the Coalition for Marriage – the body that’s been campaigning against the gay marriage proposals. Because of the geographical specifics and likely low turnout this has been a very challenging survey for the pollster to carry out and there are some important qualifications. Unlike normal ComRes voting intention…

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The economy remains top concern in latest Ipsos-MORI Index with unemployment and housing on the rise

The economy remains top concern in latest Ipsos-MORI Index with unemployment and housing on the rise

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The April Ipsos-MORI Issues Index sees unemployment move into 2nd place with immigration down to 3rd. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 Concern about housing moves to its highest level for 5 years according to latest Ipsos-Mori Issues Index twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 Concern about unemployment edges back up in April Ipsos-MORI Issues Index twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 The Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique because the questioning is unprompted &…

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South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

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Ladbrokes South Shields Ukipshares:0-10 7/110-20 6/420-30 13/830-40 4/140+ 20/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 LAB very strong favourites to hold Thursday’s South Shields by-election. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 South Shields betting without LAB from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 South Shields betting CON vote share from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30,…

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The scene is set for a dramatic and unpredictable election day on Thursday

The scene is set for a dramatic and unpredictable election day on Thursday

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All but one of the main four monthly pollsters have UKIP on record highs. The other one has them just 1 off. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 One of the key rules when analysing polls is not to compare the individual numbers from the different firms but to look at the overall trends. And from the main pollsters, the established firms that have been commissioned to carry out regular voting intention surveys at least once since at…

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The Tories deficit in latest ComRes phone poll is down to six percent

The Tories deficit in latest ComRes phone poll is down to six percent

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ComRes phone poll just out has the Tories closing the gap. CON 32%(+4), LAB 38%(nc), LD 9%(-3), UKIP 13(-1). — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2013 The ComRes phone poll for the Indy is one of just three regular telephone surveys that are still being commissioned. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2013 But with YouGov the margin remains 9% The LAB lead remains at 9% in the latest YouGov. CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%. Ukip’ figure…

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The challenge for GE2015 – Appealing to current Ukip supporters and 2010 LDs at the same time

The challenge for GE2015 – Appealing to current Ukip supporters and 2010 LDs at the same time

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There are two key cohorts of potential swing voters at GE2015 – those who are now saying they will vote UKIP and those who supported the LDs in 2010. The interactive chart above shows how these two switching groups have very different views on the main issues facing the country. For the Tories the main challenge is to win back those now saying Ukip while, at the same time, hoping that in the key LAB-CON marginals they will be defending…

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If you thought the party you’d like to vote could win in your seat then what would your choice be?

If you thought the party you’d like to vote could win in your seat then what would your choice be?

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Some interesting cross-tabs in these YouGov findings Interesting cross-breaks to YouGov question on who you’d vote for if CON/LAB/LD/UKIPhad chance in your seat twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2013 I posted the above clip from today’s YouGov dataset earlier on Twitter and it led to an interesting discussion on Twitter. This would have been posted here earlier but for the woeful inadeqacies of EE mobile broadband which is as crap as Vodafone. Mike Smithson For the latest polling…

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