The first time incumbency bonus could make the Tory task of hanging on a bit easier

The first time incumbency bonus could make the Tory task of hanging on a bit easier

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The 1st time incumbency bonus that could make the Tory election challenge a bit easier. See chart. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55384 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2013 The above chart is based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and seeks to reflect the impact of incumbency at the general election. As can be seen the type of CON seat where the party did least well were in seats they were…

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Can the country get used to a long and slow squeeze?

Can the country get used to a long and slow squeeze?

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David Herdson on the politics of austerity Experts and others making New Year predictions are as much a tradition at the turning of the year as fireworks, soon-to-be-broken resolutions and loud but not entirely coherent renderings of Auld Lang Syne. Except where change – or at least, the clear opportunity for change – is scheduled, these predictions inevitably default to ‘much the same as last year’, and it’s almost certainly on that basis that both the government and opposition will…

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Can the coalition expect to lose from hard working families in 2013?

Can the coalition expect to lose from hard working families in 2013?

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Henry G Manson says ministers should expect a backlash Politicians of all stripes eulogise hard working families. They feature on our broadcasts, in set-piece speeches and in painful long-drawn out anecdotes that has been the trend of recent years. It’s got so bad that the impression given is that if you’re living alone you couldn’t possibly be hard working. Attention is given to families for good reason. Typically at least two voters at home, living connected lives at work or…

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ICM data shows that the 65+ group, the one most likely to vote, is the one most opposed to gay marriage

ICM data shows that the 65+ group, the one most likely to vote, is the one most opposed to gay marriage

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ICM figures showing how support for gay marriage drops sharply with age. 65+the fastest growing segment for UKIP. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2013 Does this have political impications? The above is based on data from last week’s ICM poll and shows what could be a political challenge – paricuarly for the Tories. For it’s the blue team which does better amongst the over 65s and it is this age group, particularly the men, who have most switched…

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For the record last night on Twitter I entered into a general election wager with the Telegraph’s Blairite blogger Dan Hodges

For the record last night on Twitter I entered into a general election wager with the Telegraph’s Blairite blogger Dan Hodges

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@msmithsonpbYep. £50. — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013 @msmithsonpbDeal. — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013 @guidofawkesNo, you’ve had quite enough money off me… — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013

LAB could win an overall majority with not much more than a third of the national vote

LAB could win an overall majority with not much more than a third of the national vote

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Given the way that the electoral system works in LAB’s favour then any maj price longer than evens looks like value twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2013 Why I’m now betting on a LAB majority AndyJS, who’s done a splendid job on the US election, has produced an online spread-sheet showing Labour’s target seats for the election. It’s presented well with a lot of good data and links and I’ve little doubt that we’ll be referring to it…

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