Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election) Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2) Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%) Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%) Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as…

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Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015

Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015

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Anti-CON tactical voting could be much greater The big polling news yesterday was that in the Ipsos-MORI monthly phone survey the LAB lead amongst those certain to vote was down to just 4%. Suddenly a glimmer of hope appeared to be opening up for the Tories. Yet when these numbers were put into the Electoral Calculus HoC seat predictor LAB had a majority of 30 with a vote share of just 34%. That is 3% below what the Tories achieved…

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The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

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This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote. The chart, based on this month’s Ipsos-MORI data, shows the proportion saying they are certain to vote in each age segment and the proportion saying they would vote UKIP if there was a general election tomorrow. It has been observed in past elections that…

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LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI

LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI

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The Ipsos-MORI voting figures showing LAB with bigger lead amongst all who had voting preference.Ukip on 11% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 Even with LAB’s down to 34% with a 3% lead they’d still get an overall maj Electoral Calculus goo.gl/kvYwh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 Update – the latest Ipsos-MORI leader ratings Latest leader ratings from Ipsos-MORI with Farage out scoring all. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

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Bigger YouGov shares for Ukip coming up?They appear to now include Ukip in first prompt. See this from @redukipper twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 If the firm’s critics are correct then expect bigger Ukip shares Above is a screen shot of YouGov polling questionnaire which shows that Ukip is now included in the prompt on the main voting intention question. Until now those polled wanting to say Ukip have had to click the “some other party” option…

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Britain is a how many party system?

Britain is a how many party system?

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Harry Hayfield’s historical prespective The main news narrative over in recent days has been “Britain is a four party system country” following the success of UKIP in the county council elections, I, however would counter that by saying “Britain is in fact a thirteen party system” and hasn’t been a four party system for well over twenty years Parties that have scored more than 1% of the national vote at a UK general election since 1950 Great Britain only 1950:…

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Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

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Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives. His reasoning was that these are a set of elections where the Tories have traditionally done well irrespective of how they’ve been performing in national Westminster polls. Even, as the interactive chart above shows, in the dark days for the party…

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