The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

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The immigration poster at the heart of the CON-LD row. The Tories want it – the LDs are opposed pic.twitter.com/WRIvgDEdWi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 How the two key swing groups reacted to the campaign As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP…

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This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories closing the gap to just 3%

This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories closing the gap to just 3%

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The Tories surge as the UKIP decline continues The latest ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out and is in line with the trends we’ve been seeing over the past weeks: the Ukip decline and the Tory recovery. The figures and changes on last month are in the chart above. A 4% increase is outside the margin of error which suggests that real movement had taken place. The poll is not that far off the 36-36 ICM survey a…

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Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfort from Mrs. Thatcher

Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfort from Mrs. Thatcher

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Putting those “best PM” ratings into context Polling day came a few days later May 3rd 1979. The Tories won an emphatic victory with an 8% lead on votes and an overall majority of 44 seats and went on to secure overall majorities in the next three general elections. They stayed in power for eighteen years. Mrs Thatcher, however, continued to trail in the MORI “best PM” ratings for another year until Jim Callaghan stepped down. Mike Smithson For the…

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The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impact on the “best party on NHS” ratings

The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impact on the “best party on NHS” ratings

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LAB YouGov lead as best party on NHS remains at 12% pic.twitter.com/wzwuLsixfe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 One of the big apparent “wins” for the Tories before they broke up for the summer recess was their response on the Keogh report on hospital failings which had happened on Labour’s watch. This it was hoped would help the party eat into the traditional LAB lead that they have on the NHS. The CON attack was high octane and certainly…

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Latest GE2015 betting

Latest GE2015 betting

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Overall majority CON majority slips back & no overall majority gets tighter on Betfair GE2015 outcome market pic.twitter.com/XDdtvQMYDj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013

Populus online has CON closing the gap to just 5 pc – but are Tory members raising their expectation too high?

Populus online has CON closing the gap to just 5 pc – but are Tory members raising their expectation too high?

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Meanwhile nearly 2 in 3 CON members believe that Dave can hang on Remember that July 5 years ago when the betting was on a CON landslide At this precise point ahead of GE2015 in Jul 2008 William Hills made it a 40% chance that CON would win a 100+ majority The bet was a loser — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013

The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best

The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best

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The incumbency experience for the yellows at GE2010 There’s been some discussion over the weekend about the impact of incumbency and how it can help the parties achieve better outcomes in terms of seats won than the uniform swing might suggest. In a post on Saturday I looked at the GE2010 experience of the Tories and Labour. Today’s it’s the turn of the Lib Dems and the chart above shows how it performed on average in different types of seats…

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The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

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All the firms have UKIP in the same direction The easing off of UKIP support is one of the factors that has helped the Tories in recent weeks. We should get a sense on Thursday of whether this movement in the polls is reflected in UKIP’s performance in real elections. Two of the County Council divisions won by the purples on May 2nd are up. The ever so stable new polling series from Populus There should be another Populus online…

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