politicalbetting.com

Given how far behind the Tories are in the polls there is some sense in Sunak’s announcement that he intends to scrap many of the key environmental targets that have been settled policy for several years. Firstly he gets a lot of public attention as we see from today’s front pages. Secondly what he’s putting forward is quite novel and extremely controversial. There’s already been a fair amount of criticism from Boris Johnson and team who were responsible for the…

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My guess is that a similar question in a national poll would find clear support. It is striking that in this poll that Tory voters while backing the plan are not as supportive as the rest. If this does go through you can see it getting similar support outside Wales. There are of course many more road users than drivers. As a driver, a cyclist and a pedestrian I would be supportive because it could transform urban environments. In any…

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I like this chart because its starting date almost coincides with when PB was launched. Ipsos is just about the only pollster able to produce such an analysis because it has been operating in the UK since the 1970s. The most noticeable aspect in the last few years has been the decline and decline of the Tory polling figures. I think the public has decided that it is time for change and that Starmer is fairy reassuring to the centre…

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On Monday the government finally came up with a “take it or leave it” compensation offer to the subpostmasters. £600,000. It was described by Kevin Hollinrake, Minister for Postal Affairs, as “providing a generous uplift” on compensation payments already made. Let’s see how generous it really is. Some subpostmasters were convicted as long as 23 years ago, between 2000 – 2015, the majority in the earlier years. That is compensation of between £26,000 and £75,000 pa. The sums on offer…

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The election date is October 19th so there’s some time for movement. Mike Smithson

She was only PM for 45 days Clearly Labour is on to a winner with this one and the more Liz Truss is in the news the better it is for Starmer’s party. I am just amazed that Truss has pressed given the shambolic nature of her time at Number 10. Resignation honours are just about justifiable for PMs who have served a reasonable time at Number 10 but 45 days come off it. The danger for the Tories is…

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Normally incumbent Presidents don’t face a serious challenge when they seek re-election but next year things could be very different because Biden is so old. So far all the messages from the Biden camp are that he does plan to stand again even though he could be in his late 80s when his second term of office finally came to an end. I just wonder whether he could be facing a contested primary with one or two young challengers seeking…

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