Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

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The monthly Electoral Calculus general election projection is out and as can be seen from the chart LAB is given a 79% chance of an overall majority. In seat terms Electoral Calculus is projecting a LAB majority of 80 which is seven up on a month ago. The seat breakdown is CON 231 (-76): LAB 365 (+107): LD 23 (-34): SNP/PC 12 (+3): UKIP 0 (=) The key part of the Electoral Calculus approach is the assumption of a universal…

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LAB moves to an 11 percent lead with YouGov equalling it’s best position since early April

LAB moves to an 11 percent lead with YouGov equalling it’s best position since early April

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EdM gets an 8% personal ratings boost The chart shows the latest polling numbers from YouGov with changes on the firm’s last survey for the Sunday Times a week ago. The big thing is not the lead but the movement by 5% in the Labour share. This is a big conference bounce – the question is whether it can be sustained. If these numbers were repeated at a general election LAB would have a very comfortable majority. The poll finds…

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The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

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What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%? This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:- “Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a…

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Goodbye to the Middle Ground

Goodbye to the Middle Ground

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If a Middle Ground even exists It’s been an axiom of political analysis over at least the last quarter century that elections are won on the centre ground, or, if neither of the main two parties is on that ground, then by the party nearest it.  Occupying and dominating that position was crucial to Tony Blair in government and opposition, and heading towards it defined strategy for his two predecessors too.  Likewise, David Cameron spent much of his time in…

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Forget the 70s, new voters can’t even remember the 90s

Forget the 70s, new voters can’t even remember the 90s

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Henry G Manson on the events of the week We’ve seen a plenty column inches devoted to Ed Miliband wanting to take Britain back to the 1970s by committing to freeze energy prices for two years. The title of Dominic Sandbrook’s article in the Daily Mail, ‘Miliband’s Marxist father and the real reason he wants us to drag us back to the nightmare 70s’ has a full house in the bingo game seeminlgy played by right wing journalists. Well done…

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Why politicians of all colours will have less to fear from the press at GE2015

Why politicians of all colours will have less to fear from the press at GE2015

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Remember how the Sun’s decision to drop LAB was the big news when party was last in Brighton Sales drops & paywalls make press less important When this Sun published in Sept 2009 sales 3,079,998 Now 2,258,359l pic.twitter.com/ak3sLVIVyZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2013 Since then the circulation of almost all papers has dropped sharply The online presence is being reduced by paywalls

Local By-Election Preview : September 26th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : September 26th 2013

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  Wombwell on Barnsley (Lab Defence) Last Election (2012): Lab 52, Ind 6, Con 5 (Lab overall majority of 41) Last Election Results in electoral cycle 2010: Lab 2,617 (58%), Con 764 (17%), British National Party 738 (16%), Barnsley Independents 419 (9%) 2011: Lab 1,887 (65%), Barnsley Independents 440 (15%), Con 323 (11%), British National Party 218 (8%) 2012: Lab 1,769 (73%), Barnsley Independents 329 (14%), English Democrats 192 (8%), Con 124 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Frost (Lab), Kevin…

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