With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority moves into the favourite slot

With almost exactly a year and a half to go LAB majority moves into the favourite slot

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GE2015 betting odds LAB maj 6/4 No majority 13/8 CON maj 3/1 pic.twitter.com/m5LBy318G0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2013 My longest-priced bet is the 12/1 I got last year with Hills for their “other” option in the GE2015 outcome market. That covers a hung parliament but with no coalitions being formed. At 9/1, in a bet placed in May, I’ve got another CON-LD coalition or, if you like, the incumbent government being returned to power. I’ve got wagers at evens with…

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3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as best person to lead Britain through economic crisis

3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as best person to lead Britain through economic crisis

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Leading on the economy isn't everything. See this from final Ipsos-MORI poll of marginals at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/W0n5k6yMyy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 @ScotMac3 The same final Ipsos-MORI GE2010 marginals poll had a 7% LAB>CON swing – enough for a majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 Another contradictory “It’s the Economy” finding? I came across the above from the final Ipsos-MORI marginals poll of the GE2010 campaign while researching the broader question of how such surveys compare…

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If “help to buy” boosts house prices it could be an election negative for the Tories

If “help to buy” boosts house prices it could be an election negative for the Tories

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Ipsos-MORI poll goes against conventional wisdom A new Ipsos MORI poll for Inside Housing has found nearly three times as many Britons disagree than agree that rising house prices are a good thing for the country. Just under a quarter (23%) strongly disagree that “Rising house prices are a good thing for Britain” while a further third (34%) tend to disagree. A fifth (20%) either strongly agree or tend to agree that price rises are a good thing. The poll…

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The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

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One thing’s for sure: They can’t both be right Nine days ago the prominent Oxford political scientist, Dr. Stephen Fisher, produced what appeared to be a startling new forecast for GE2015 that gave the Conservatives a 57% chance of winning an overall majority. Last night the ex-Cambridge mathematician, Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus fame, issued his latest monthly forecast based on a polling average applied to his well known and widely used Commons seat model. This pointed to Labour having…

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Next LAB leader betting price on Yvette Cooper starts to ease as the focus moves to Umunna and Hunt:

Next LAB leader betting price on Yvette Cooper starts to ease as the focus moves to Umunna and Hunt:

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Chuka Umunna 10/1 2nd favourite for next LAB leader with rising star Tristram Hunt now 20/1 pic.twitter.com/TErZ2wazOg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2013 The Blair and Brown of next generation Labour? There’s a great piece in the Sunday Telegraph today by Matthew d’Ancona in which he identifies rising LAB stars Chuka Umunna and Tristram Hunt as the Blair and Brown next generation Labour. It is a good comparison which I’d not thought of before. On Hunt he writes:- “..Hunt’s…

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CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

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@tobyhelm I make that LAB down 1 on 2 wks ago LAB-1, 37 CON+4, 31 UKIP-1, 16 LD-2, 7 I think a CORRECTION might be needed — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 Labour lead six in op obs poll. Lab down one tories up four. Not lab down four as I said before. Trust @mikesmithson! — Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) November 2, 2013 @OpiniumResearch for Observer found 41% saying BBC biased 27% say it leans to the left 14% say it favours the right. — Mike…

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Do the media ‘get it’ yet?

Do the media ‘get it’ yet?

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Press, public and politicians – who needs defending from whom It was no doubt a coincidence that Andy Coulson and Rebekah Brooks were in court in relation to the charges against them over the phone hacking scandal on the same day that newspaper and magazine publishers were also in court seeking to prevent the granting of a Royal Charter on press regulation.  Nonetheless, the former made a somewhat ironic backdrop to the latter. Not that it’s just the tabloids.  The…

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