Could Khan be beaten in London? The big change in next years London mayoral election is that the rules have been changed and this is now simply first past the post. All the earlier contests had voters being able vote for a second choice if their first choice did not make the final two. This was how the Tories had their surprise win in the Bedford mayoral contest last May. The rules were changed by Boris Johnson when he was…
Would the Tories fare better with a change at the top? The problem for Tory MPs is that these numbers have a great impact on their survival chances. Anything that suggests the leadership is a big negative is of immediate interest to those MPs worried about whether they will still be there after the election. These come as party conference season gets under way and the big story with the Tories is going to be on the leadership. My own…
The detail of the poll shows what we have become used to – a very large proportion of CON GE2019 voters not having a voting intention. This continues to make me cautious and no doubt LAB planners feel the same. Just 45% of Tory voters at the last election say they will still back the party but that surely will increase. I don’t think the Tories are helped by Sunak who increasingly looks like an electoral liability. Mike Smithson
What is the Government’s plan?
Two Met officers appear at Westminster Magistrates Court today – one charged with misconduct in public office for abusing his position for sexual purposes and the other for misuse of computer systems. Neither of their names are published, unlike ordinary defendants. Even the Cumberland police are not immune: recently an officer was dismissed for running a pornographic Twitter account under a false name and not declaring it as an outside business interest. The Home Secretary over the weekend issued a…
In just 6 days Tory representatives from all over the UK will be gathering in Manchester for their annual conference. In recent years the city has become one of the regular locations for big conferences and for the Tories it is politically useful to be holding something near where quite a few of their red wall seats gains at the 2019 election are located. Problem this year is the news that has seaped out that Sunak is planning to block…
One thing that is becoming more likely is Sunak will be leading the Tories at the general election. In doing so he will probably be the richest person ever to head the party at such a contest. A big question is whether his riches are going to be a negative or a positive. On the one hand they are a mark of his suscess in the past on the other that his life experience is very different from his constituents…
Just for a bit of fun I thought it would be fun to take part in this thought experiment and I hope PBers will join in the comments section. The only way I can see Sunak still being Prime Minister is if the events in Ukraine goes sub optimal for the West (or if Ukraine actually are on the cusp of winning and Putin goes nuclear) and/or if China decides to invade Taiwan, something which cause problems for the entire…