Time to start betting on YES There’s a new IndyRef poll in Scotland on Sunday from ICM – the pollster that got the 2011 AV referendum most right predicting the final result to within a small fraction of a percent. The figures saw YES up 5% and NO down 5% compared with the last in September. The initial split in the poll was 54-46 but that closed to 53-47 when those sampled were pressed further for a view. Very interestingly…
Over to you Mr. Osborne The big announcement in this morning speech from Ed Balls was that a Labour government would reintroduce the 50% tax rate which was reduced to 45% in George Osborne’s March 2012 budget. This is probably the most significant policy move yet from Labour in the build up to GE2015 – now little more then 15 months away. At the time of the change to 45% Osborne’s move didn’t poll very well and there’s little indication…
Farage Number 10? pic.twitter.com/NF05OOYWVL — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2014 David Herdson on a nightmare or a dream The toothy beaming smile said it all. The new prime minister stood on the steps of Downing Street and waved to nobody in particular but it was what the assembled media wanted anyway. They were as stunned at the result as everyone else. True, the polls a few days before had been predicting it but no-one really believed them did they? Polls…
The evidence suggests that it’s working the other way round It’s been repeated often enough on PB that an essential part of Labour’s polling position is based on the very large proportion of 2010 LD voters who’ve now switched to Labour. If this hadn’t happened or starts to slip away then EdM’s dreams of becoming PM are in trouble. So far, at least, the evidence is that such a move that is even more pronounced in the key LAB-CON marginals…
Motherwell North on North Lanarkshire (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 1,719 (68% unchanged on 2012), SNP 520 (21% -4% on 2012), Con 173 (7% +2% on 2012), UKIP 107 (4% no candidate in 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,199 (47%) on a swing of 2% from SNP to Lab West Leigh on Southend on Sea (Con Defence) Result: (Changes since 2011, when retiring councillor was last elected) Con 743 (37% -13% on 2011), Lib Dem 688 (34% +1% on…
How Salmond was being reported a week before the Cowdenbeath by-election pic.twitter.com/2BnXnBEcAq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2014 LAB 55.8% (+9.3) SNP 28.4% (-13.2) CON 9.4% (+2.5) UKIP 3.0% L Dem 2.1% (-1.8) Victims 0.9% SDA 0.3% The campaign approach that could scupper YES Given that we are now only eight months away from the referendum in Scotland that will determine whether it stays in the UK or not the outcome of every election north of the border is being…
Motherwell North on North Lanarkshire (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 41, SNP 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 12) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,548, 941, 897 (68%) Scottish Nationalists 689, 572 (25%) Conservatives 217 (5%) Liberal Democrats 109 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Bob Burgess (Con), Jordan Linden (Scottish Nationalists), Pat O’Rouke (Lab), Neil Wilson (UKIP) For details on the background to this election, please…
It’s the Demography, Stupid. The next General Election is a year and a half away, and it’s going to be interesting (as all elections are for gamblers). Labour currently have a consistent polling share which suggests a Labour majority, if they maintain it. But for predictive purposes, it’s interesting to look in some detail at who will actually decide the next election – Everyone, of course, but realistically the voters in the most marginal seats. Who are they, where are…