A 2014 by-election in Lansley’s Cambs South would be a battle to relish – and there’s a reasonable chance it could happen

A 2014 by-election in Lansley’s Cambs South would be a battle to relish – and there’s a reasonable chance it could happen

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Lansley’s now joint 2nd favourite to be next EU Commissioner One of the big decisions that the coalition government has to take in the next few months is who should be the next UK EU Commissioner to the take up office in Brussels in the autumn. Lots of names have been mentioned and last week Ladbrokes opened a betting market. A critical political consideration is that if an MP is appointed then he/she would have to resign their seat and…

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A reminder: The Tories need lead of 7.3 percent before they start winning LAB seats and stop losing to them

A reminder: The Tories need lead of 7.3 percent before they start winning LAB seats and stop losing to them

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The gap needs to close and move sharply the other way Tory hopes will probably be boosted a bit by today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times which sees the party on 35% just 4 points behind Labour with both the LDs and UKIP on 10%. Maybe they can even start to think of a cross-over – something on which there is an active betting market. If that happens it will certainly be a key psychological moment and will give the…

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The CON minister in charge of immigration resigns for employing someone who didn’t have permission to work in the UK as his cleaner

The CON minister in charge of immigration resigns for employing someone who didn’t have permission to work in the UK as his cleaner

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Immigration Minister Mark Harper resigns after it emerged his cleaner did not have permission to work in the UK. pic.twitter.com/CD3uOfzKRe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2014 Another boost for UKIP? Further details from the Spectator blog here.

Swing voters haven’t stopped swinging – they’re just doing it differently

Swing voters haven’t stopped swinging – they’re just doing it differently

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The classic Con/Lab voter has gone the way of the Con/Lab system Once upon a time, most people voted at general elections and nearly everyone that did voted Conservative or Labour.  And thus the key swing vote was born: those persuadable voters in marginal constituencies.  Win them and you win the election. Then it became far more complicated.  The rise of the Liberals, the Scots and Welsh Nationalists and more recently a plethora of other parties – combined with a…

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Local By-Election Results : February 6th 2014

Local By-Election Results : February 6th 2014

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Betws yn Rhos on Conwy (Non Party Independent defence) Result: Independent (Lloyd) 347 (46%), Plaid Cymru 197 (26% -2%), Independent (Evans) 127 (17%), Conservative 83 (11%) Independent WIN with a majority of 150 (20%) (The total Independent vote was 474 (63%) down 9% on 2012, therefore there was a swing of 3.5% from Ind to Plaid) Arbourthorne on Sheffield (Lab Defence, last elected in 2012) Result: Lab 1,398 (52% -15% on 2012), UKIP 482 (18% +2% on 2012), Con 213…

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