Based on current polls the betting markets are understating Labour’s chances of an overall majority

Based on current polls the betting markets are understating Labour’s chances of an overall majority

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A hung parliament should not be favourite Betfair’s next general election overall majority market was set up a couple of months after May 2010 and in the early period the price on a CON majority soared to 40%+. Then it went into a decline and in the aftermath of Osborne’s March 2012 budget dropped to a 16% chance. In the summer of 2013 when all the pressure appeared to be on EdM and 3 polls reported that the parties were…

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Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress punters. He remains an 80pc chance to retain Hallam

Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress punters. He remains an 80pc chance to retain Hallam

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Not on topic, but would you like to take part in an Oxford research project on PB? A researcher at the Oxford Internet Institute currently studying the UK political blogosphere is interested in interviewing regular contributors, occasional commenters and lurkers alike for a brief interview by email about their interest in the site, politics more generally, and what they think makes the PB community unique. This is a highly informal piece of research, intended for internal assessment not publication, and…

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Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

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It’s very hard to forecast a CON majority Since before Christmas I’ve been maintaining an average of the four main party shares from the 5 YouGov polls that appear every week. This enables us to follow trends much better than looking at individual polls from the firm which like all surveys can sometimes be affected by sampling issues. The big message looking at the charts above is how constant the LAB figure has been within a range over the two…

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The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules

The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules

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2010 debate pic.twitter.com/CSoY1dvIbZ — PolPics (@PolPics) February 22, 2014 To start with the relatively easy bit: any debates taking place within the election period would be subject to OFCOM’s broadcasting code. Well mostly. In the interests of full accuracy this part of the code (primarily section 6) “does not apply to BBC services funded by the licence fee, which are regulated on these matters by the BBC trust”. Since any debates are likely to be (as last time) a joint effort…

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Who’ll finish fourth?

Who’ll finish fourth?

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David Herdson on the battle for the minor European election placings Fourth is, according to Olympic pundits, the cruellest finishing position.  I don’t buy it.  Who’d rather finish fifth or sixth than fourth, or, looking at it the other way, who enters a competition to finish third?  Higher is better, first is best and last is worst. Understandably, most of the coverage of the European elections has focussed on the front of the field: who’ll take first place, where Labour…

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What are defined as major parties: Ofcom rules make it quite difficult to exclude Nick Clegg from GE2015 TV debates

What are defined as major parties: Ofcom rules make it quite difficult to exclude Nick Clegg from GE2015 TV debates

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The Ofcom list of "major parties" which makes it difficult to exclude Clegg from TV debates pic.twitter.com/ffTUd6GRMw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2014 My guess is that in the coming months we are going to hear a lot about the Ofcom rules which govern broadcasting election coverage in the UK. The current situation is set out in the revised rules that were published in March last year. Those parties defined as “major” have a special status when it comes…

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So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

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Ladbrokes open debate betting to be settled on a voodoo poll!! Well done to Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage for agreeing to a debate ahead of the European elections. This will certainly add fizz to the Euro Elections and could boost turnout beyond the 35% of last time. Given Nick Clegg’s position and his party’s numbers in the polls the challenge was a smart move and will help the LDs in its efforts to position itself as the party of…

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Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

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John Kerry 2016 pic.twitter.com/hktNEskffM — PolPics (@PolPics) February 19, 2014 He could be ideally placed if his Middle East peace plan succeeds The first thing I did on my return last night from an intensive tour of Israel and Palestine was to place a bet at 50/1 with Ladbrokes on the defeated 2004 presidential candidate, John Kerry, for the Democratic party nomination in the 2016 White House race. Alas the bookie has now cut the price to 25/1 though you…

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