Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

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The LDs get best Opinium figures since 2011 The fortnightly online poll by Opinium for the Observer is out and sees the LAB lead down to 5% and the party with its smallest share with the firm since 2010. The pollster is the only online firm not to have any political weighting which makes an interesting contrast with the other internet operators. It generally has high UKIP scores and low LDs ones. Back in July it had the yellows on…

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Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015

Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015

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ITV News on the "Boris being encouraged to stand for Parliament" story http://t.co/TnYeD7NZxT pic.twitter.com/BhSlVM5rUv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P betting market on which seat Boris will stand in at GE2015 pic.twitter.com/tA0lPRV2J9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 His term as Mayor ends in May 2016, then there might be a move The timing of the London Mayoral terms was always going to be a problem for Boris assuming that he wants to get back to the…

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Miliband’s five hurdles

Miliband’s five hurdles

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What can stop Labour’s cruise to victory? To say there’s been no movement in the opinion polls over the last two years would be untrue.  Most obviously, UKIP’s average share doubled between early 2012 and the time of last year’s local elections, pushing the Lib Dems into a regular fourth, which remains the case despite a slight drop off for the Purples.  There’s also been a small narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives, but at a glacial…

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On this day exactly two years ago YouGov had CON in the lead on 40pc

On this day exactly two years ago YouGov had CON in the lead on 40pc

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How it looked for the blues before the rise of UKIP & Osborne’s March 2012 budget At the end of February 2012 the Tories were still getting the benefit from the after-glow of what became known as the “Veto-gasm” – the polling boost that followed from David Cameron’s famous Brussels veto. The positive mood was seen in the betting. In mid-January 2012 the Betfair price on a CON overall majority tightened to a 41% chance while Labour was rated at…

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Let’s kill this myth once again. Cameron never had the chance of a minority government in May 2010

Let’s kill this myth once again. Cameron never had the chance of a minority government in May 2010

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May 11 2010 The Tories hadn’t won & there was need for Brown to step aside I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed to win a majority and there was no obligation on him to go to the palace and recommend to the Queen that Cameron should be invited to form a government. It is this central constitional fact that the “Dave should have gone…

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Local By-Election Preview: February 27th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: February 27th 2014

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  Scotter on West Lindsey (Con Defence) Result of last election (2011): Con 21, Lib Dem 11, Ind 3, Lab 2 (Conservative overall majority of 5) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,164, 934 Independent 623 Liberal Democrats 332 Result of by-election held on December 19th 2013: Non Party Independent 529 (51%), Conservative 219 (21%), Liberal Democrats 148 (14%), United Kingdom Independence Party 138 (13%) (Non Party Independent GAIN from Conservative) Candidates duly nominated: Pat…

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UKIP no longer odds-on betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros. LAB now in top slot

UKIP no longer odds-on betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros. LAB now in top slot

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LAB now clear betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros Last year UKIP were odds-on pic.twitter.com/yV4aLhn43w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2014 The Wythenshawe outcome seems to be depressing expectations One thing that I’ve missed in recent weeks has been the growing sentiment on the betting markets that Labour will win most votes and that the task facing UKIP is going to be harder than many predicted. At the start of the year Ladbokes made the purples a…

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Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

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And there’s a whiff of good news for the LDs at the Euros What I’ve found to be a fascinating piece of polling for the British Future think tank has just been published by Ipsos-MORI. Rather than the conventional voting intention questions interviewees were asked for views of the four main national parties and whether they’d consider voting for them in both general elections and the Euros, general elections only, the Euros only, or whether they’d never consider voting for…

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