For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

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This should shake up the betting markets Note that ComRes applied a different certainty to vote filter compared with normal Westminster polling. Only those certain to vote are included and my guess is that this is a major factor that has put UKIP at the top. As I write I haven’t seen the detail but my guess is that demographic groups likely to support UKIP are those who are most likely to turnout. Note. The change figures on the above…

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It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster ones and one EP2014

It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster ones and one EP2014

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One Saturday a month we seem to have a glut of polls with ComRes for the Indy on Sun/ S Mirror, Opinium for the Observer and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. On top of this ComRes, will be publishing an EP2014 survey, which is only the fourth such poll from any firm since the start of the year. Judging by polling activity you wouldn’t think that this election is only nine and a half weeks away. ComRes tell…

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Will the Tories stop talking about Europe after May?

Will the Tories stop talking about Europe after May?

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When being in touch becomes being out of touch Ed Miliband’s non-promise of a referendum this week may have been designed to do several things.  It could have been a reassurance that a future Labour government wouldn’t repeal this administration’s European Union Act 2011, though it would modify it and that modification could be significant.  It could be a half-hearted effort to join the In-Out debate.  It could have been an effort to confirm his pro-EU credentials.  But all these…

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This week’s local By-Election: The detailed results

This week’s local By-Election: The detailed results

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Petersfield, Bell Hill on East Hampshire (Conservative Defence) Result: Conservative 190 (42% -15%), UKIP 110 (24%), Labour 75 (17% -2%), Liberal Democrats 74 (16% -8%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 80 (18%) on a swing of 20% from Conservative to United Kingdom Independence Party Petersfield, Butser on Hampshire (Conservative Defence) Result: Conservative 1,156 (37% -2%), UKIP 720 (23% +1%), Liberal Democrats 685 (22% +1%), Labour 322 (10% +1%), Green 220 (7% -2%). Conservative HOLD with a majority of 436…

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Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones

Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones

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A reaction to Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum”? Today’s Populus online poll sees the LAB lead down to just 1%. The raw number show LAb still with a big lead but the weighted ones, after the demographic and certainty calculations, the Tory deficit comes right down. Now as I keep on saying it is wise not to equate correlation with causation. But the big thing that’s happened has been EdM’s EU referendum announcement, which was dominating the headlines at the…

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For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth

For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth

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Results so far from latest by-elections see LDs doing well LD 2 gains CON 1 hold & 2 losses LAB 4 holds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2014 Labour lead back up to five points in YouGov Sun poll CON 33% LAB 38% LD 11% UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 And the yellows main gainers in latest council by-elections It is clearly far too early to draw conclusions but in the week after the Elvis Bus Pass party debacle the LDs…

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Local By-Election Preview: March 13th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: March 13th 2014

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Heanor West on Amber Valley (Labour Defence) Result of last election (2012): Conservative 24, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 3) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 838 (56%), Conservative 381 (26%), British National Party 272 (18%). Labour GAIN from British National Party with a majority of 457 (30%). Candidates duly nominated: Mark Burrell (Con), Celia Cox (Lab), Philip Rose (UKIP), Kate Smith (Liberal Democrats) Barham Downs on Canterbury (Conservative Defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservative 36, Liberal…

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LAB lead down to just 3pc in the March Ipsos-MORI poll

LAB lead down to just 3pc in the March Ipsos-MORI poll

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Some good news for the LDs on gettng credit for tax changes The @IpsosMORI chart that should bring some cheer to Clegg & co pic.twitter.com/MBBSJDnDhv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 @IpsosMORI finds Osborne leading Balls as the " most capable potential chancellor" by 38 to 33. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 Clegg sees most improvement in leader ratings Nick Clegg sees the most improvement in March @IpsosMORI leader ratings pic.twitter.com/uB6oyXkwLg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13,…

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