The Ashcroft polling that could most worry the Tories

The Ashcroft polling that could most worry the Tories

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There’s a big expectation that by the time we get to GE2015 many of those ex-CON voters now saying UKIP will, when push comes to shove, return to the blue fold. I buy into that. We see in weekly round of local by-elections that the purples are chalking up big vote shares in wards where they don’t impact on the outcome, notably though not exclusively, in LAB heartlands. Last Thursday, for instance, they achieved 28% in Sunderland. But looking at…

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Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

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CON has most positive votes and the fewest tactical ones The chart above is based on the finding new form of questioning which has just been tested by Opinium for its latest Observer poll. After the main voting intention question the firm asked “You said that you would vote [Party] if an election were held tomorrow. Would you say that this is because you’d want to vote for [Party] or because you’d want to vote against someone else?” For those…

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For the fifth month in succession the projected LAB majority from Electoral Calculus sees a decline

For the fifth month in succession the projected LAB majority from Electoral Calculus sees a decline

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The March projection from Electoral Calculus is for LAB majority of 40 pic.twitter.com/cX2NETOxN5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2014 At the start of 2014 it was 78 seats Martin Baxter, the City mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus for nearly two decades, has put out his latest monthly projection and once again there is a decline in the projected LAB majority. Martin computes the figure by applying his own polling average to his Commons Seats calculator. Inevitably the…

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Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

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After a whole spate of post-Budget polls showing the LAB share declining and the gap getting close today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times comes as something of a shock. Is it an outlier or are we seeing the Budget effect starting to fade away? That is always hard to say and all we can do is wait to see some more polling. The fieldwork for today’s poll was later than the latest Opinium or Populus polls which both had the…

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Opinium sees Labour’s support fall to lowest level since 2010 election

Opinium sees Labour’s support fall to lowest level since 2010 election

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LAB down to just 33% in tonight's Opinium poll for the Observer – the lowest level since GE2010. CON 1% behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2014 Tonight's Opinium poll for the Observer with LAB 1% means that all the firms reporting since the budget have the gap narrowing — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2014 Chart showing Opinium polls since 2010 pic.twitter.com/ywRkMy0YlP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2014   The Observer article can be found here. TSE

How Nigel and Nick squared up against each other in the week’s other YouGov polling

How Nigel and Nick squared up against each other in the week’s other YouGov polling

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Although the fieldwork took place last month this only appeared on YouGov’s website yesterday. NOTE: I’m out this evening and will not be posting tonight surveys until later. As well as YouGov I’m expecting Opinium for the Observer which has some interesting tactical voting questions. The sample was asked if people were voting for a party or against one and, if so, which. Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB

It’s time for the Tories to embrace PR

It’s time for the Tories to embrace PR

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FPTP is no longer in either the country’s or the Conservatives’ interests It is unusual for governments to schedule and highlight their splits in advance.  However, three years ago, the Coalition launched into a bout of premeditated infighting from which it has never really recovered.  It was entirely unnecessary on any number of levels.  The event was of course the AV referendum. Why was it unnecessary?  Because it was obvious that the result would prompt recrimination and bitterness on whichever…

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YouGov polling blow for the man Ladbrokes make the 5-1 second favourite to be Dave’s successor

YouGov polling blow for the man Ladbrokes make the 5-1 second favourite to be Dave’s successor

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Osbo trailed behind behind EdM, Boris, Clegg, Farage & even Balls Although the fieldwork took place earlier in the month and before the budget it was only this week that YouGov put up the above polling on their site. The question about how well suited X is to becoming PM is an interesting one which I can’t recall seeing before. The sample was asked for their views for each of those named in turn so it wasn’t an either/or type…

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