By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

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New PB Thread on the Newark by-election http://t.co/4w5rDEVYsB pic.twitter.com/3lZWA51Yug — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 29, 2014 So we have a by-election in Newark. Earlier on today, when I speculated on whether a Newark by-election will be held on May 22nd, the same day as the locals and Euros, Mark Senior posted It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013…

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The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

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Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals CON -160 LAB +500 LD – 340 Ukip ??? pic.twitter.com/2VqfIooP1e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2014 For two decades Professors Rallings & Thrasher have been producing forecasts ahead of the May local elections based on their local by-election model. Usually these are “revealed” at a special briefing at the Institute of Government organised by the Political Studies Association which is what I’ve been attending today. This is an event that the party spinners absolutely hate…

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Betting on the May 22nd Euros continues to be miniscule compared with the IndyRef

Betting on the May 22nd Euros continues to be miniscule compared with the IndyRef

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Maybe SNP supporters are bigger gamblers than UKIP ones? Above is what is becoming a PB regular – our chart based on Betfair’s amount traded on key political markets data. There are all the other bookmakers but only the Betfair betting exchange provides the information so that you can get a picture of what is going on. I’ve little doubt that this represents the pattern elsewhere. Compared with what is happening to the Manchester City price on the Premiership title…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you like political betting, welcome to PB, Nobody Does It Better than PB. If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, no one will think You’re So Vain for delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Ukip condemned by cross-party group for…

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CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

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This from the Tories look like a smart campaigning import from the US. The PM wants to talk to ME pic.twitter.com/EwzBsI03ta — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2014 Big data giving the personal touch This morning Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, sent me the above email with an invitation to take part in a conference call with the Prime Minister tonight. Although the text doesn’t say it specifically there’s a suggestion that I could be in dialogue with Mr. Cameron. On…

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YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

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Probably the most remarkable feature from the latest YouGov Euros poll is the split amongst the 60+ age group – featured in the chart above. As can be seen some 45% of those who expressed a voting intention said UKIP. We’ve always known that the purples have a greater appeal as you move up the age scale but this split took me by surprise. It looks as though there is something special about the Euros. For only 20% of this…

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The minor parties – A quiet consolidation?

The minor parties – A quiet consolidation?

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Election analysis by Corporeal The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline. Or at least it has been, the most recent opinion poll ratings suggest that this trend will be broken with a sharp jump upwards (I’ve used…

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