GE2015 becomes even more like Premiership football where the top teams rely on highly-paid foreigners

GE2015 becomes even more like Premiership football where the top teams rely on highly-paid foreigners

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Welcome to Axelrod versus Crosby The Guardian front page with news of Labour's appointment of Axelrod to advise on party's GE2015 campaign pic.twitter.com/NLeJSbT9vb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 18, 2014 How much can Ed’s new hire bring that’s relevant to the UK? There’s no doubt that the overnight news on Labour’s Axelrod appointment will cheer the party faithful but I just wonder what Axelrod will be able to bring. Axelrod’s great strength is that he’s good at messaging but he’ll…

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The Euro elections are being totally overshadowed by Scotland and that could have an impact on May 22nd

The Euro elections are being totally overshadowed by Scotland and that could have an impact on May 22nd

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Maybe it is because I’m on my way home from Edinburgh after being immersed totally in Scottish politics for two days but I am convinced that the immensity of what will be decided on September 18 is overshadowing everything. The very idea that the Union that has been in place since 1707 might come to an end is what everybody is focusing on to the exclusion of almost everything else in current politics. This means, for starters, that the Euro…

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The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

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Do punters think that May 22 is not very important? One of the great things about the Betfair exchange is the amount of data that’s available on each of its markets. The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the…

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Corporeal asks: Will the dog bark

Corporeal asks: Will the dog bark

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Sex and politics is an explosive mix and one that has driven a lot of scandals in British history, from Parnell’s divorce through the Profumo affair, Jeremy Thorpe, and up to the present day scandals to not even scratch the surface. The most recent rumours (that I happily don’t know enough about to make any troublesome innocent faces) aren’t either as influential or as shocking (the Duchess of Argyll’s divorce case is inexplicably obscure now) as the most infamous historical…

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Betting on the number of Lib Dem MEPs

Betting on the number of Lib Dem MEPs

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New PB Thread on how many MEPs the Lib Dems will have after the Euros http://t.co/ZHM2lWolM5 pic.twitter.com/hioJ9rUC0t — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2014 Ladbrokes have a market on how many MEPs the Lib Dems will have after the Euros. If we apply UNS to the ICM poll for the Guardian, they will end up with zero MEPs. Now this election is conducted in regions under the d’Hondt  method so a straight UNS calculation may not be apt. That said, the…

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Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?

Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?

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Benedict Brogan wrote the other day David Cameron will resign if he loses Scotland. A Prime Minister who allows the break-up of the United Kingdom cannot suffer such a statement of no confidence and continue in office. That much is understood in Downing Street, where a gnawing doubt about the referendum gets worse by the day. The vote takes place in five months this Friday. Angst rather than panic describes the feeling apparent among those involved – but is it…

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European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

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European Election Results 2009 Conservatives 4,193,706 votes (27.63%) winning 272 count areas and 25 MEP’s United Kingdom Independence Party 2,495,782 votes (16.44%) winning 9 count areas and 13 MEP’s Labour 2,375,361 votes (15.65%) winning 59 count areas and 13 MEP’s Liberal Democrats 2,078,723 votes (13.70%) winning 11 count areas and 11 MEP’s Green Party 1,302,705 votes (8.58%) winning 3 count areas and 2 MEP’s British National Party 941,491 votes (6.20%) winning 0 count areas and 2 MEP’s Scottish National Party…

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Are we reaching a tipping point for Nick Clegg’s leadership?

Are we reaching a tipping point for Nick Clegg’s leadership?

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Polling this parliament PB Thread Are we reaching a tipping point for Clegg's leadership http://t.co/pJaMJualu0 pic.twitter.com/7GYQQtHecA — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2014 One of the constants in this parliament is each May, in the local elections, the Lib Dems lose a significant number of councillors and the Lib Dems insouciance to it all. With other parties, it may have triggered speculation about the Leader/a Leadership election. The Lib Dems motto seems to be “Keep Calm and Carry On” I suspect this…

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