One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN for the Euros: The other has them comfortably ahead

One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN for the Euros: The other has them comfortably ahead

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Same questions, same pollster, different numbers For GE2015 the Sun on Sunday poll has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 10, Ukip 15. The S Times Westminster voting intentions poll from YouGov has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP 15 What is clear is that the Tories are edging up in the Euros. Last week YouGov had them on 18%. If on May 22 the Greens do leapfrog the LDs for fourth place then that could have serious consequences for…

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Farage’s Newark gamble: UKIP won’t score a near-miss

Farage’s Newark gamble: UKIP won’t score a near-miss

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Farage pic.twitter.com/iqy9GrZpNB — PolPics (@PolPics) May 2, 2014 But the seat provides challenges for all parties To be damned if they do and damned if they don’t is the lot of politicians.  Whatever decisions they take (or don’t take), one side or another will criticise them.  To that end, Nigel Farage’s choice to opt out of the Newark by-election will be castigated by some as defeatist at a time when his party is surging in the polls.  Had he taken…

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Local By-Election Result : May 1st 2014

Local By-Election Result : May 1st 2014

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Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result: Ind 932 (39% -40%), SNP 726 (30% +15%), NPI 537 (22% +20%), UKIP 133 (6%), Scottish Christian Party 63 (3% +1%) Total Independent vote: 1,469 (61% -18%) Independent HOLD on the fourth count on a swing of 17% from Ind to SNP Turnout: 34.4%

The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

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The Purples look to be timing their peak right again With only a few weeks to go to the last big set of elections before the 2015 general election, April’s PB polling average shows the extent to which UKIP is once again timing a polling surge.  The figures are with changes on March LAB 36.4 (-0.1), CON 31.3 (-1.3), Ukip 14.6 (+2.7), LD 9.1 (-1.6) So after last month’s Budget bounce, the overall Lab-Con lead is back around the 5%,…

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Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it will be Labour

Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it will be Labour

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At Corby there was 12.7% CON>LAB swing but that was pre-Ukip surge & fewer 2010 LDs to squeeze Newark requires 15.4% LAB @ 3/1 great bet — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2014 We now have a by-election date, June 5th, the declaration by Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, that he won’t be his party’s candidate and the launching of Newark markets by the main political bookmakers. My money at this early stage has gone on Labour simply because it is the value…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014

Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014

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Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independent 33, SNP 22, Liberal Democrat 15, Labour 8, Non Party Independent 2 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 905, 710, 506, 71 (79%) Scottish National Party 411 (15%) Conservatives 66 (2%) Non Party Independent 60 (2%) Scottish Christian Party 45 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: William MacDonald (SNP), Liam Simmonds (UKIP), Ben Thompson…

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Today’s new Euro polls: Survation for London and YouGov for GB

Today’s new Euro polls: Survation for London and YouGov for GB

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The LDs seem to be holding up well in London It is widely known that London tends to have a different view of the world than the rest of GB and so it appears to be with this month’s Euro elections. Although up on 2009 Ukip have not made the breakthroughs on the same scale in the capital as elsewhere. Conversely the LDs who have taken one pummelling pummelling after another are finding that their London vote in the Euros…

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Mike Nattrass’s breakaway party could win 5% or more of the Euro votes putting it in fifth place

Mike Nattrass’s breakaway party could win 5% or more of the Euro votes putting it in fifth place

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Pollsters should start including it in their Euro2014 prompts Ukip is surging in the polls and, if the latest numbers are a good indication, look set to pull off a sensational result on May 22nd. So far, however, the pollsters have yet to catch up with the possible impact of the party formed by the ex-Ukip deputy leader, Mike Nattrass, which will appear at or near the top, of every ballot paper in England under the name “An Independence from…

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