UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

UKIP Euro voters are more than twice as likely to say they’ll support party in general election compared with five years ago

The first data from the 20,000 sample British Election Study Exactly a year to go and this morning I’m off to London for the launch of the British Election Study – a huge academic exercise involving Manchester/Oxford/Nottingham universities which is monitoring and will produce regular reports on the coming general election. The chart above is from findings that have been released overnight as a sort of taster. They seek to answer the big unknown – the extent that UKIP support…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re going to be up, All Night Long, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, Hello,  why not delurk tonight, if you do delurk, I’m sure you’ll be Dancing on the Ceiling in excitement. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Labour set to lose out as young…

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The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

An update on how the blue-red battle is doing where it matters, the marginals The big polling event of May 2014, exactly a year before general election, will be the publication by Lord Ashcroft of his latest mega sample polling of the marginals. This is due to be made available during the weekend immediately after the May 22nd local elections and immediately before the results of the Euro elections are announced. The former usually come on the Friday while with…

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Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets

Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets

Ukip most seats at Euros price easing from a 72% chance to a 54% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/JYYSXpBJPE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 @ChrisBloore Postal ballots just started to arrive with apparent confusion of alternative to Ukip at top of form pic.twitter.com/kxi9TpwQyd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014

Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?

Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?

If reports are correct Roger Helmer is set to become Ukip candidate in Newark & possibly party's first elected MP pic.twitter.com/WLN5uP0NtD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 He could appeal to the party’s key target voters According to the Sun the controversial Ukip MEP, Roger Helmer is being lined up to be the party’s candidate for the Newark by-election which takes place on June 5th two weeks after the May 22nd Euros. If, as is widely assumed, Ukip do…

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Returning to the Holy Land after a gap of 46 years – and still no sign of peace

Returning to the Holy Land after a gap of 46 years – and still no sign of peace

“An anti-semite is someone who hates us more than is necessary” The above comment, made over dinner at the Jerusalem Press Club by a prominent Israeli journalist in mid-February to me and five other UK-based journalists, in a nutshell explained why we were there. The state of Israel, created by the United Nations in 1948, has an ongoing PR problem and needs if not friends people in the outside world who at least understand it. The six of us had…

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One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN for the Euros: The other has them comfortably ahead

One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN for the Euros: The other has them comfortably ahead

Same questions, same pollster, different numbers For GE2015 the Sun on Sunday poll has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 10, Ukip 15. The S Times Westminster voting intentions poll from YouGov has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP 15 What is clear is that the Tories are edging up in the Euros. Last week YouGov had them on 18%. If on May 22 the Greens do leapfrog the LDs for fourth place then that could have serious consequences for…

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