I think that we are going to see ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/S Mirror, ICM online for the Sunday Telegraph and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. This post will be updated later. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB
How Labour could win next year without Miliband becoming PM This time next week, we’ll have the results from the local elections, though not yet the Euros. As a whole, they’ll tell us a lot about how the land lies going into the last year of the parliament. One set of contests worth keeping an eye on is that in Ed Miliband’s back yard. On the face of it, the idea that Miliband could lose his seat, even as Labour…
Only changes are LD up CON down all within margin or error Whenever a new poll comes up showing two or three points changes someone always comes on to say it is all within the margin of error. And so it is from a mathematical point of view. But most “consumers” of poll don’t react in that way – it is an emotional thing particularly during a highly charged political period that we are going through at the moment. So…
In an EU referendum would you vote to STAY or LEAVE – @IpsosMORI trend 1977 to May 2014 pic.twitter.com/P0DQFcL4di — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2014 Is opinion being influenced by the Scottish uncertainty? One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polling in the UK for longer than anyone and has extraordinary records. This means that it can put things into context. Ahead of next Thursday’s Euro election it has put out…
Clegg's going to stay LD leader but if not the PaddyPower http://t.co/MXDWhYTLh0 25/1 on Danny Alexander is good bet pic.twitter.com/8DurUMBgN1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2014 Clegg’s going to stay but if he doesn’t Alexander’s well positioned Just a week to go and lots of talk about whether all the party leaders will survive. For the Lib Dems I like the 25/1 that Paddy Power is offering on Danny Alexander to be leader at the election. He’s positioned himself…
Could this be inflating their purple shares? There’s a new ComRes online Euros poll out this morning. The figures show Ukip in its best position of any of the firms that have reported this week with a big margin over place LAB. But there’s a big difference between ComRes 10/10 certain to vote figures and those where its normal turnout weightings are applied. So of five firms to have reported this week three have Ukip in the lead, one has…
Also Ukip sees big increase in 2010 LAB switchers The chart shows the responses of those telling ICM in their last six polls that they voted Labour at GE2010 but have now switched to either “Dont know/Refused” or Ukip. As can be seen there has been a marked increase in switching to the purples but by far and away the biggest element has been the increase in 2010 LAB voters now saying they don’t know or simply refusing to given…
Farage sees his net satisfaction ratings down 7.5% @IpsosMORI chart showing change in its monthly leader ratings. Biggest net change -7.5% for Farage pic.twitter.com/bEdv8JFR3J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 Given recent polls today’s May Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI will come as something as a relief to Labour. They are down 4% but still in the lead. A more interesting change has been the 4% fall-back in Ukip’s Westminster voting share. This combined with declining ratings for Farage might…