The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

The big number to look for in this month’s upcoming Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals

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An update on how the blue-red battle is doing where it matters, the marginals The big polling event of May 2014, exactly a year before general election, will be the publication by Lord Ashcroft of his latest mega sample polling of the marginals. This is due to be made available during the weekend immediately after the May 22nd local elections and immediately before the results of the Euro elections are announced. The former usually come on the Friday while with…

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Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets

Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets

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Ukip most seats at Euros price easing from a 72% chance to a 54% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/JYYSXpBJPE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 @ChrisBloore Postal ballots just started to arrive with apparent confusion of alternative to Ukip at top of form pic.twitter.com/kxi9TpwQyd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014

Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?

Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?

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If reports are correct Roger Helmer is set to become Ukip candidate in Newark & possibly party's first elected MP pic.twitter.com/WLN5uP0NtD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 He could appeal to the party’s key target voters According to the Sun the controversial Ukip MEP, Roger Helmer is being lined up to be the party’s candidate for the Newark by-election which takes place on June 5th two weeks after the May 22nd Euros. If, as is widely assumed, Ukip do…

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Returning to the Holy Land after a gap of 46 years – and still no sign of peace

Returning to the Holy Land after a gap of 46 years – and still no sign of peace

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“An anti-semite is someone who hates us more than is necessary” The above comment, made over dinner at the Jerusalem Press Club by a prominent Israeli journalist in mid-February to me and five other UK-based journalists, in a nutshell explained why we were there. The state of Israel, created by the United Nations in 1948, has an ongoing PR problem and needs if not friends people in the outside world who at least understand it. The six of us had…

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One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN for the Euros: The other has them comfortably ahead

One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN for the Euros: The other has them comfortably ahead

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Same questions, same pollster, different numbers For GE2015 the Sun on Sunday poll has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 10, Ukip 15. The S Times Westminster voting intentions poll from YouGov has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP 15 What is clear is that the Tories are edging up in the Euros. Last week YouGov had them on 18%. If on May 22 the Greens do leapfrog the LDs for fourth place then that could have serious consequences for…

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Farage’s Newark gamble: UKIP won’t score a near-miss

Farage’s Newark gamble: UKIP won’t score a near-miss

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Farage pic.twitter.com/iqy9GrZpNB — PolPics (@PolPics) May 2, 2014 But the seat provides challenges for all parties To be damned if they do and damned if they don’t is the lot of politicians.  Whatever decisions they take (or don’t take), one side or another will criticise them.  To that end, Nigel Farage’s choice to opt out of the Newark by-election will be castigated by some as defeatist at a time when his party is surging in the polls.  Had he taken…

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Local By-Election Result : May 1st 2014

Local By-Election Result : May 1st 2014

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Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result: Ind 932 (39% -40%), SNP 726 (30% +15%), NPI 537 (22% +20%), UKIP 133 (6%), Scottish Christian Party 63 (3% +1%) Total Independent vote: 1,469 (61% -18%) Independent HOLD on the fourth count on a swing of 17% from Ind to SNP Turnout: 34.4%

The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

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The Purples look to be timing their peak right again With only a few weeks to go to the last big set of elections before the 2015 general election, April’s PB polling average shows the extent to which UKIP is once again timing a polling surge.  The figures are with changes on March LAB 36.4 (-0.1), CON 31.3 (-1.3), Ukip 14.6 (+2.7), LD 9.1 (-1.6) So after last month’s Budget bounce, the overall Lab-Con lead is back around the 5%,…

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