The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third

The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third

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ComRes online EP2014 poll has Ukip 11% ahead UKIP 35%+1 LAB 24%= CON 20% -2 GRN 7% +2 LD 6% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 ICM online for S Telegraph has Ukip in 3rd place CON 26%+4 LAB 29%-1 LD 8%= UKIP 25%-2 Changes on last ICM online Euros poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 The differences between the two polls are massive and it is not easy finding an obvious explanation. A lot of this comes down to how the two firms…

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By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls as well as Westminster ones overnight

By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls as well as Westminster ones overnight

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I think that we are going to see ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/S Mirror, ICM online for the Sunday Telegraph and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. This post will be updated later. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

EdM might just be susceptible to a decapitation strategy in Doncaster N

EdM might just be susceptible to a decapitation strategy in Doncaster N

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How Labour could win next year without Miliband becoming PM This time next week, we’ll have the results from the local elections, though not yet the Euros.  As a whole, they’ll tell us a lot about how the land lies going into the last year of the parliament.  One set of contests worth keeping an eye on is that in Ed Miliband’s back yard. On the face of it, the idea that Miliband could lose his seat, even as Labour…

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Today’s Populus poll should at least calm some nerves in the red camp

Today’s Populus poll should at least calm some nerves in the red camp

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Only changes are LD up CON down all within margin or error Whenever a new poll comes up showing two or three points changes someone always comes on to say it is all within the margin of error. And so it is from a mathematical point of view. But most “consumers” of poll don’t react in that way – it is an emotional thing particularly during a highly charged political period that we are going through at the moment. So…

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Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highest level since before the 1992 ERM crisis

Ipsos-MORI finds support for staying in the EU at its highest level since before the 1992 ERM crisis

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In an EU referendum would you vote to STAY or LEAVE – @IpsosMORI trend 1977 to May 2014 pic.twitter.com/P0DQFcL4di — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2014 Is opinion being influenced by the Scottish uncertainty? One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polling in the UK for longer than anyone and has extraordinary records. This means that it can put things into context. Ahead of next Thursday’s Euro election it has put out…

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The 25-1 on Danny Alexander being LD leader at GE 2015 is good value bet

The 25-1 on Danny Alexander being LD leader at GE 2015 is good value bet

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Clegg's going to stay LD leader but if not the PaddyPower http://t.co/MXDWhYTLh0 25/1 on Danny Alexander is good bet pic.twitter.com/8DurUMBgN1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2014 Clegg’s going to stay but if he doesn’t Alexander’s well positioned Just a week to go and lots of talk about whether all the party leaders will survive. For the Lib Dems I like the 25/1 that Paddy Power is offering on Danny Alexander to be leader at the election. He’s positioned himself…

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Polling analysis: Ukip is getting its best EP2014 shares from those firms that don’t prompt for the Greens

Polling analysis: Ukip is getting its best EP2014 shares from those firms that don’t prompt for the Greens

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Could this be inflating their purple shares? There’s a new ComRes online Euros poll out this morning. The figures show Ukip in its best position of any of the firms that have reported this week with a big margin over place LAB. But there’s a big difference between ComRes 10/10 certain to vote figures and those where its normal turnout weightings are applied. So of five firms to have reported this week three have Ukip in the lead, one has…

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Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

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Also Ukip sees big increase in 2010 LAB switchers The chart shows the responses of those telling ICM in their last six polls that they voted Labour at GE2010 but have now switched to either “Dont know/Refused” or Ukip. As can be seen there has been a marked increase in switching to the purples but by far and away the biggest element has been the increase in 2010 LAB voters now saying they don’t know or simply refusing to given…

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