The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

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LAB’s chances now rated at below 30% We’ve not looked at the overall GE2015 betting markets for some while but over the three and a half months since the budget there has been a steady decline in LAB prices with a tightening of both the hung parliament possibility and a CON majority. Check on the chart above to see how things have changed since the budget. A LAB majority down from nearly 40% to 29.8%; CON majority up nearly 5%…

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Monday morning polling round-up with worrying figures for LAB in ComRes marginals poll

Monday morning polling round-up with worrying figures for LAB in ComRes marginals poll

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If this was the only marginals polling about LAB would be pressing the panic button In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal LAB-CON constituencies, Labour holds a 5% lead over CON. At GE2010 the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats. 25 of the seats included currently have CON MPs – the other 15 LAB ones. When analysing all poll findings from the marginals the key thing is the…

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Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be dissolved triggering the formal start of GE2015

Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be dissolved triggering the formal start of GE2015

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Are we ready for a five and a half week long campaign? We’ve all known for four years that the Fixed Term Parliament Act lays down that the next general election will be held on May 7th 2015. One thing a lot of people have missed is that the formal campaign period will be far longer than we’ve seen in the past. The 2013 Electoral Registration & Administration Act 2013 extends the length of the statutory timetable for from 17…

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LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voting intention poll

LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voting intention poll

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The comparisons in the chart are from Survation poll taken in the days after the May 22nd Euros. The fact that this poll coincides with a week that saw the Coulson verdict and the Cameron stand-off in the EU over the presidency doesn’t necessarily mean that these events have impacted on voting plans. We have always got to be careful not to confuse correlation with causation. We need more polling before we can start to draw any conclusions. But Labour…

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David Herdson says “Britain’s EU exit is now when, not if”

David Herdson says “Britain’s EU exit is now when, not if”

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The Juncker class are the problem not the solution The nomination of Jean-Claude Juncker as next EU Commission President has moved Britain substantially closer to leaving the Union.  On the one hand, Britain was marginalised in a process that has traditionally been built on consensus; on the other, the attitude of the Euro-elite – including Juncker – to the European Parliament election results has been to ignore the opposition to the EU direction of travel and carry on as normal….

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It’s cross-over time on the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. Immigration moves clear of the economy as top concern

It’s cross-over time on the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. Immigration moves clear of the economy as top concern

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Concern about immigration now takes over from the economy as main concern in @IpsosMORI Issues Index See pic.twitter.com/m2IDfDKVZU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 Concerns on the economy move to a six year low Concern about the economy drops to its lowest level for six years according to June @IpsosMORI Issues Index See pic.twitter.com/fQNHF8Gzfa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 Concerns over the EU move to nine year high Concern about the EU moves to nine year high in @IpsosMORI…

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Deferred Elections Results : June 26th 2014

Deferred Elections Results : June 26th 2014

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Swanwick on Amber Valley (Conservative WIN in 2010) Result: Conservatives 474 (36% -14% on 2010) Labour 298 (23% -8% on 2010) Independent 252 (19%) UKIP 245 (19%) Lib Dem 32 (2% -17% on 2010) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 176 (13%) on a swing of 3% from Conservative to Labour New Amber Valley Composition: Labour 23, Conservatives 22 (Labour overall majority of 1) Colindale Dale on Barnet (3 Labour WINS in 2010) Result (by party and candidate) : Emboldened…

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