New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but the overall picture remains

New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but the overall picture remains

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Time is starting to run out for YES There’s a new TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll out this morning that has both YES and NO moving up with a fall in don’t knows. The pollster, like YouGov, has tended to show YES in a poorer position than some of the other firms and asks a slightly different voting intention question. Rather than the conventional “how would you vote tomorrow” TNS asks what people are planning to do on September 18th. The affect…

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Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm

Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm

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And an event is planned for Manchester on September 23rd Thanks to all those who’ve contacted me about the Ilkley event on Monday. This’ll be held in the Flying Duck pub from about 6.30pm. We’ll probably be upstairs. The address is 16 Church Street and the postcode is LS29 9DS. It was on the route for today’s opening stage of the Tour de France. I’m told that Monday evening is generally the quietest and most of the TDF crowds will…

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David Herdson says: “Time for Britain’s greatest county to stand up”

David Herdson says: “Time for Britain’s greatest county to stand up”

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Whatever it is that makes a nation, Yorkshire has it The folk of God’s Own County tend to be a reticent bunch, not much given to singing their own praises (or indeed, anyone else’s), but as cycling’s greatest race speeds spectacularly over the Broad Acres this weekend – an event the locals have greeted with characteristic enthusiasm and humour – it’s a good occasion to ask whether it should be the next nation within the UK to gain devolved powers. I…

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This week’s Local By-Election Results

This week’s Local By-Election Results

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Skipton West on Craven (Lib Dem defence) Result: Labour 185 (24% +2%), Liberal Democrats 143 (19% -8%), Conservatives 131 (17% -9%), UKIP 126 (16%), Independent 120 (16% -2%), Green 67 (9%) Labour GAIN from Liberal Democrats with a majority of 42 (5%) on a swing of 5% from Lib Dem to Lab Skipton West on North Yorkshire (Lib Dem defence) Result: Independent 391 (23% -1%), Conservative 355 (21% +1%), Liberal Democrats 309 (19% -10%), UKIP 238 (14%), Green 194 (12%…

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The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edges up

The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edges up

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For the first time there are now two Kippers for every Lib Dem You might expect that the polls for the first month after the Euro-elections would show a drift of support back to the main three Westminster parties, as UKIP and the minor parties receded in media and campaigning prominence.  If so, you’d be wrong.  The June figures, with changes on May are: Lab 34.3 (+0.6), Con 31.4 (-0.1), UKIP 15.8 (+0.8), LD 7.9 (-1.5) All three parties are…

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Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

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Could Farage be named as candidate quite soon? At the time of the Newark by-election Nigel Farage indicated that he’d be announcing which seat he’d contest at GE2015 by “the end of the month”. Well we’ve now moved into July and we haven’t heard. But the speculation continues that Farage will choose the Kent seat of Thanet South which was won by the Tories from LAB at GE2010. It was one of the seats polled by Lord Ashcroft in May…

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Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014

Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014

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Wivenhoe Quay on Colchester (Lab defence) Last election to council (2014): Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 23, Labour 8, Independent 3 (No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 5) Last election in ward (2011): Labour 1,279 (57%), Conservative 573 (26%), Greens 217 (10%), Liberal Democrats 172 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Shaun Boughton (Lib Dem), Tim Glover (Green), Peter Hill (Con), Dave Osborn (Patrotic Socialist), John Pitts (UKIP), Rosalind Scott (Lab) St. James on Northampton (Lab Defence) Last election to council (2011):…

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The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

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By Patrick Briône Director of Research, Survation This week Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, published an article both on YouGov’s website and in The Times newspaper, with his views on why opinion polls in Scotland by different polling companies have produced consistently divergent results on the question of the Scottish independence referendum. His argument was that YouGov’s polling in Scotland was superior to that of Survation (and other polling companies) due to other companies weighting results to 2011 vote, which…

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