Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

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http://t.co/lBS0VWejYf pic.twitter.com/SZosVsl3uZ Given the static #IndyRef polling the pressure's most on Salmond in Tuesday's TV debate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2014 Can he pull off the Holyrood 2011 magic? One of the big moments in Alex Salmond’s career was a big TV debate of Scottish party leaders in late March 2011. At the time the SNP was trailing LAB in the Holyrood polling and it did look as though SLAB was going to return to power. In the debate…

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UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

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For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”. The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros. Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May…

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The PB July Polling Average: Gravity finally catches up with UKIP

The PB July Polling Average: Gravity finally catches up with UKIP

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Con, Lab and LD all up, but so are Others So perhaps UKIP does need the oxygen of publicity after all.  After recording a record score in June, Farage’s party is the biggest loser in July; indeed, the only loser.  That June figure surprised many who thought that the absence from the papers and TV screens of what’s still in many ways a minor party would inevitably lead to a drop in vote share.  It didn’t then but two months…

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The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

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Betfair chart showing build up of betting interest in the #IndyRef set to be biggest ever non GE political gamble pic.twitter.com/Cx9WKkh7Ww — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2014 The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity. Generally in election markets 90%+ of all bets are…

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Full round up of this week’s local by-elections with news of 2 LAB gains

Full round up of this week’s local by-elections with news of 2 LAB gains

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Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result: Labour 783 (43%), UKIP 496 (27%), Conservatives 404 (22%), BNP 95 (5%), British Democrats 58 (3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 287 (16%) Mostyn on Flintshire (Ind Defence) Result: Independent 205 (40%), Labour 191 (37% +4%), UKIP 90 (18%), Conservatives 27 (5%) Independent HOLD with a majority of 14 (3%), no swing calculable Penydarren on Merthyr Tydfil (UKIP defence) Result: Labour 257 (31% -7%), Independent (Thomas) 235 (29%), Independent (Barsi) 228…

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The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

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But Labour’s inherent electoral advantages could be being ignored Exactly 8 months today on April 1st 2015 the formal general election campaign will begin and my intention at the start of every month is to monitor betting prices on the Betfair exchange to see how the mood is changing. The chart above shows current latest trades on the firm’s GE2015 outcome market and has comparisons with what it was just before the March 2014 budget. As can be seen the…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

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Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 33, Labour 16, British National Party 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 14) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservative 1,473, 1,399, 1,309 Labour 1,306, 1,153, 1,058 Candidates duly nominated: Hanif Asmal (Con), Chris Canham (British Democrats), Stepgen Denhan (BNP), Tom Prior (UKIP), Ralph Raven (Lab) On the face of it Charnwood appears to be a Conservative area, however appearances…

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The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

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If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months. What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through. What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s…

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