There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

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And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004. The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade. Secondly, given UKIP…

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It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

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Next round of @LordAshcroft marginals polling perhaps? LAB targets #15-30 from UKPR http://t.co/cnko1uzXpI pic.twitter.com/7wlxQCM089 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2014 Yesterday my wife was telephone polled for what appeared to be a seat specific survey in Bedford where we live. This is LAB target number 24 and was won by the Tories with a 3% majority in 2010. Judging by the format of the questions the interview followed the same pattern as all his other marginals’ polling. To me…

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While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

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The pollster that last August had YES ahead now has NO 8% lead In August 2013 there was a sensational poll by the Northumberland-based Panelbase that had YES 1% ahead. Although the survey had been commissioned by the SNP the firm is the regular pollster in Scotland for the Sunday Times which added credence to its findings Since then the firm has been part of the group including Survation and ICM that has tended to have YES in better positions….

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At 4-1 the CON most votes/LAB most seats bet is still the best GE2015 punt

At 4-1 the CON most votes/LAB most seats bet is still the best GE2015 punt

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CON odds on with Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh to win most votes, LAB odds to win most seats. Best bet 4/1 dbl pic.twitter.com/80ZexOnrbP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2014 My current reading is that UKIP returnees will gradually boost CON shares while LAB will retain almost all the 2010 LD switchers which has been the bed-rock of their polling for nearly four years. This means that in terms of national vote shares the outcome will be very tight. The voting patterns…

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Austria, Serbia and George W Bush

Austria, Serbia and George W Bush

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The descent into WWI is a 21st Century story Sepia-toned silent images of black-coated or feather-hatted diplomats lend a reassuring distance to the events that plunged the world into war a hundred years ago this week.  It looks like a world long since vanished and in one sense, it is.  However, like much of that story, it is an illusion; all the more dangerous for the complacency that false reassurance breeds. Far from being a different age, the threats posed…

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Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

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Clifton on Blackpool (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 501 (41%), UKIP 362 (30%), Conservatives 283 (23%), Liberal Democrats 33 (3%), Greens 25 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 139 (11%) Turnout: 23% (Grateful thanks to Blackpool Council for their publication of the result and vote shares) Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun on Doncaster (Lab Defence) Result: UKIP 1,203 (41%), Labour 1,109 (38% unchanged), Conservatives 479 (16% +2%), Greens 160 (5%) UKIP GAIN from Labour with a…

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Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Populus online poll

Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Populus online poll

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This is the lowest UKIP share since the firm’s methodology change in February What will really please the Tories is that, like ICM last week, the UKIP drop has been accompanied by a rise in the CON share, It holds out hope that the Tories could move into the lead even though LAB stays constant. The crazy thing about GE2015 is that it is really about two battles: CON versus UKIP to get the switchers back and LAB versus LD…

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Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his September conference in Doncaster

Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his September conference in Doncaster

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UKIP GAIN from LAB in EdM's backyard Edenthorpe on Doncaster UKIP 1,203 LAB 1,109 CON 479 GRN 160 EdM sits for Doncaster N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2014 Farage’s party gains council seat from LAB with 41% of vote in EdM’s Doncaster N backyard There are a lot of places in Yorkshire which spring to mind as good conference venues. Harrogate, Scarborough, York and Leeds would probably be the main choices but not, I’d suggest, Doncaster which is where the Ukip…

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