The trend is still your friend > “All changes are within the margin of errorâ€. It’s a frequently heard line, usually trotted out by those sympathetic to a party whose share has just declined, or by those keen to fence-sit. While it may be true (and it usually is: only six of the 600 or so poll-to-poll changes across the four parties in this year’s YouGov series have been more than 3%, for example, and then only by a single…
YouGov/ST Boris polling finds that FEWER current CON voters would back party with Boris as leader (HT @georgeeaton) pic.twitter.com/gIvB2FZDTb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 The mayor attracts votes as well as turning some off Thanks to George Eaton at the New Statesman for picking this up. A Boris-led Tory party could lead to fewer current CON voters backing the party. Looking at the detail in the table above we see that there’s a 5% drop amongst current CON…
Today 's YouGov S Times polling showing the appeal of Boris to UKIP voters pic.twitter.com/1TplGaV3lm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 But he’s not seen as being up to job of being PM 36% tell YouGov that Boris would be up to the job of PM, 43% say he would not. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 YouGov S Times poll with named leaders finds that CON would do 1% better with Boris rather than Dave. — Mike…
Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 155 (50% -34%), UKIP 122 (40%), Green 23 (7% -3%), Liberal Democrats 7 (2% -4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 33 (10%) on a swing of 37% from Conservative to UKIP Warboys and Bury on Huntingdonshire (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 616 (47% +1%), UKIP 560 (42% +16%), Liberal Democrats 78 (6% -7%), Labour 72 (5% -10%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 56 (5%) on a…
How the Scottish Daily Mail is reporting its Survation #IndyRef poll showing big post-debate boost for NO pic.twitter.com/1oPFhHSidM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 NEW #indyref Survation/Scottish Daily Mail (chg since Aug 3rd) Yes 37% (-3) No 50% (+4) Undec 13% (-1) Ex Undec Yes 43% (-4) No 57% (+4) — Survation (@Survation) August 8, 2014 NO lead moves from 6% to 14% in less than a week A new poll by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail has just been published and sees a…
Could Labour be the best bet? After the big news about Boris and GE2015 we now have further details about Nigel Farage’s intentions. It looks as though he is going for South Thanet – a seat that had been strongly tipped and where he has stood before. A selection meeting has been fixed for August 26th though it does look like a formality for the party leader. The seat was won by the Tories in May 2010 by Laura Sandys…
CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2014 But Tories need bigger margin to ensure most seats Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short pic.twitter.com/VjaKSK0yLO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2014 And the fundamental problem for the blues remains: The killer figure…
Why we should be sceptical about all Boris polling For those like me who love watching political battles the ongoing tussle for the Tory leadership between Boris Johnson and George Osborne will be a pleasure to behold. Both have their strong points and both, it is said, have set their hearts on being Dave’s successor. If the Tories don’t hold on in government next May then that intriguing confrontation could be only nine months away. One factor that apparently is…