The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

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The devastating detail from the @Survation -MoS Clacton poll. Where the UKIP is coming from. http://t.co/vnARzqe6NN pic.twitter.com/y8OASfgEud — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2014 The constituency, though, is a one-off In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours. The thing we…

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UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

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According to poll of Clacton voters reported on front page of Mail on Sunday UKIP has a 44% lead pic.twitter.com/ELzVkKtmv5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 30, 2014 There’s what I assume is a Survation poll of Clacton voters in the Mail on Sunday. The only only info is on the front page – above. This looks sensational. As soon as more detail is available this will be update. Update – we now have this from the poll The detail from the…

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The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

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Saturday/Sunday morning is generally an interesting time for political punters – even more so when we have an absorbine by-election in the pipeline as well as the IndyRef. I’m hoping that we might even see a Clacton poll though the timescale has been very tight. There’ve also been hints of at least one IndyRef survey and who knows what the next round of GE2015 polling is going to show. The chart above is going to be a regular. Mike Smithson…

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David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

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A by-election victory could secure a TV debate place for Farage The defection of one MP or another towards the end of a parliament is nothing particularly unusual.  The decision of one to resign and re-contest his or her seat is.  Were it not for the vote of even greater significance taking place in Scotland next month, the Clacton by-election could have been the seminal political moment of the parliament.  Depending on the two results, it still might be. A…

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Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

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GE2015 betting: LAB majority chances on Betfair move up 3 to nearly 35% following the Carswell defection to UKIP pic.twitter.com/mjfWZx9rwv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2014 Betfair GE2015 majority betting: CON chances drop by 3% following Carswell move pic.twitter.com/P0JpwViLgH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2014 Maybe the weekend polls will change that?

Local By-Election Result: August 28th 2014

Local By-Election Result: August 28th 2014

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North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 711 (53% +16%), Labour 320 (24% -9%), Conservative 117 (9% -9%), United Kingdom Indepdendence Party 112 (8%), Green 94 (7% -5%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 391 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat This result will be seized upon by Northern Liberal Democrats as a suggestion that the constant hammering they have been getting in recent years may be coming to…

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If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton

If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton

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The mayor’s the only one who could stop UKIP in its tracks One of the big political decisions that the Tories will have to make in the next few weeks is who should be the candidate to fight UKIP defector, Douglas Carswell, in Clacton. The consequences for Cameron’s party of a UKIP victory in the seat are enormous and they have to do everything they can to stop him. Boris Johnson has decided he wants to return to the commons…

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