If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed

If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed

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YouGov IndyRef poll for the Times finds NO leads down to just 6%. It was 18% in July. %age of LAB voters supporting YES up from 13% to 30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov/Times IndyRef poll finds undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov's Peter Kellner says "Salmond is within touching distance of victory"; http://t.co/eVCF04rult — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 Via @benrileysmith How YouGov IndyRef polls have…

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Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again

Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again

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Dudley South becomes the 8th CON seat where the party won't benefit from the 1st time incumbency bonus pic.twitter.com/IsGnBTU9w4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 The more that follow Kelly route the bigger the task at GE2015 Dudley South was won by the Tories at GE2010 with a majority of 10.1% and is LAB target number 75. On current national polling it is one of a critical batch of seats that Labour needs to gain in order to secure…

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UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report

UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report

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LAB most seats/EdM next PM/ IndyRef NO all up as well Inevitably given the Survation Clacton poll the big mover has been the UKIP by-election price – now rated as an 88% chance. It is hard to see what could happen to change this and as we get closer the the date you would expect this to get tighter. EdM for next PM and LAB most seas all up a bit and there’s been a small up-tick for an IndyRef…

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The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

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The devastating detail from the @Survation -MoS Clacton poll. Where the UKIP is coming from. http://t.co/vnARzqe6NN pic.twitter.com/y8OASfgEud — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2014 The constituency, though, is a one-off In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours. The thing we…

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UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

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According to poll of Clacton voters reported on front page of Mail on Sunday UKIP has a 44% lead pic.twitter.com/ELzVkKtmv5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 30, 2014 There’s what I assume is a Survation poll of Clacton voters in the Mail on Sunday. The only only info is on the front page – above. This looks sensational. As soon as more detail is available this will be update. Update – we now have this from the poll The detail from the…

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The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

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Saturday/Sunday morning is generally an interesting time for political punters – even more so when we have an absorbine by-election in the pipeline as well as the IndyRef. I’m hoping that we might even see a Clacton poll though the timescale has been very tight. There’ve also been hints of at least one IndyRef survey and who knows what the next round of GE2015 polling is going to show. The chart above is going to be a regular. Mike Smithson…

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David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

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A by-election victory could secure a TV debate place for Farage The defection of one MP or another towards the end of a parliament is nothing particularly unusual.  The decision of one to resign and re-contest his or her seat is.  Were it not for the vote of even greater significance taking place in Scotland next month, the Clacton by-election could have been the seminal political moment of the parliament.  Depending on the two results, it still might be. A…

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