In 2010 only 47% of voters had decided the way they were going to vote before the election campaign began

In 2010 only 47% of voters had decided the way they were going to vote before the election campaign began

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If the 2015 general election is like the 2010 election, then over half the voters still won’t have made up their minds until after the campaign starts next year. Whilst most of us have been poring over the polls in recent days, I noticed this analysis by YouGov asking voters back in 2010 when they had made up their minds which way they were going to vote. I was surprised that over half the voters still hadn’t made up their…

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Tories maintain their lead with YouGov for the third poll in a row

Tories maintain their lead with YouGov for the third poll in a row

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Two out of three today’s polls have the Tories ahead.  Labour’s share of the the vote with YouGov is its lowest since it was leaderless way back in June 2010.   What we really need is to see is Voting intention polls from other pollsters. Meanwhile ICM have done an online poll for the Guardian, there’s no VI at the moment, but as with other pollsters, the Tories have a commanding lead on the economy.  Interestingly, out of the politician…

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Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the Tories ahead after their conference

Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the Tories ahead after their conference

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As ever, I’d caution about reading too much into polling conducted during and in the immediate aftermath of conferences, particularly with the Lord Ashcroft national poll, which has shown more volatility than most other pollsters. However the Blues will be delighted to have another pollster showing them ahead following their conference. Lord Ashcroft poll has 19% of 2010 LDs now saying LAB with 15% saying CON. That is seriously worrying for LAB. The gap has been much wider — Mike…

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Labour MPs urge Alan Johnson to challenge for the leadership

Labour MPs urge Alan Johnson to challenge for the leadership

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50/1 on Alan Johnson to be next Lab Leader, put your money on him being London Mayor instead. http://t.co/h7crWukgBo pic.twitter.com/KMu4zzJwZz — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 6, 2014 This morning the Telegraph reports Labour MPs in despair at Ed Miliband’s weak leadership are planning renewed efforts to tempt Alan Johnson into challenging for leader before the election. It is understood a cohort of MPs believe Mr Johnson is the only person who can win Labour a majority next May and…

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Norman Lamb says a coalition with Ed would ‘enormously damaging’ for the Liberal Democrats

Norman Lamb says a coalition with Ed would ‘enormously damaging’ for the Liberal Democrats

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  Yesterday Norman Lamb, the Lib Dem MP said The Liberal Democrats must not go into coalition with Labour even if they win more seats after the general election because the association with Ed Miliband would be so “damaging” for the party, a minister has warned. Norman Lamb, the Lib Dem care minister, said his party would be come under sustained attack if they make a coalition deal with Labour if the party get a small majority at the next…

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As long as we see polling like this it increases the chances of tactical voting against UKIP

As long as we see polling like this it increases the chances of tactical voting against UKIP

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Whilst the polling on this question has improved slightly for UKIP since May, it still represents a problem for the party. I’ve noted in the past that in politics, sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts, and unfortunately they are perceived as the party of fruit cakes and loonies and closet racists mostly. Given the large number of Labour voters in Rochester & Strood, it will be interesting if the Tories try and push the meme with Labour supporters, as I…

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What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 non voters

What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 non voters

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The race becomes a tie – but Labour could snatch it Thanks to Mike for alerting me to the fact that 23.4% of the UKIP support in the survation poll were people who did not vote in the 2010 General Election. History has shown voters who did not vote in the last general election are the less likely to turnout in the next general election. One of the reasons ICM has been consistently the most accurate pollster is one of their…

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Is this is what is driving the Tory lead?

Is this is what is driving the Tory lead?

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Dave’s policies on the Human Rights Act and the 40p tax rate enjoy plurality/net support. I’ve said before, polling on conference policies can be a lot like budget polling. Policies can get a lot of support in the immediate aftermath, but sometimes the boost in the VI fades, but the Tories will be delighted to enjoy plurality support for their two major conference policies. We need more polling from other pollsters to see if this Tory lead is being replicated….

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