Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

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When pressed on constituency question just 10% switch to red Today’s YouGov of CON 31, LAB 34, LD 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7 highlights the need to analyse what is happening to the GRN vote and what might happen in the key battlegrounds that will decide GE15. As ever the main source of published data is from Lord Ashcroft. The aggregation of a series of constituency polls means that sub-samples can be large enough to draw conclusions with a reasonable…

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Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index

Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index

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Concern about the NHS jumps by 9% in Oct Ipsos-MORI Issues index. Now 2nd only to immigration. pic.twitter.com/1YNbLZ86iL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about the economy drops to lowest level for more than 6 years in latest Ips0s-MORI Issues pic.twitter.com/d6m97umbU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about immigration moves to 6 year high in latest Ipsos-MORI Issues index pic.twitter.com/jgwkRPyEt8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Ipsos-MORI Issues index has for 40 years regarded as…

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Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble

Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble

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You could see this as an attack line? “You voted NO – now tell him you mean it”? It’s been reported widely that the outgoing SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, Alex Salmond, is thinking about seeking a Westminster seat to fight at GE15. This would mean a return to the Commons. The one he’s said to have his eye is Gordon in Aberdeenshire where the sitting Lib Dem MP, Malcolm Bruce, is standing down. Generally the Lib Dems are…

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After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

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Now a 1% margin is something for the red team to cheer For whatever reason things have not been going well for LAB in the polls over the past week. Only the Populus online poll on Monday showed a lead while Opinium, Ashcroft, ComRes and three successive YouGovs had LAB and CON level-pegging. Of course edging up to a 1% lead, as today, is statistically irrelevant – but this is not about statistics but party morale and pressure, perhaps, on…

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Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

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pic.twitter.com/VFY8BtH0Cw — PolPics (@PolPics) October 28, 2014 Which party will win and what’ll be the winning percentage margin? Last night I attended a splendid book launch for the book by the academic duo of Phil Cowley and Rob Rord featured above. Extracts have received a fair bit of coverage in the past couple of days particularly on the sexual traits of different party supporters. The book is a compendium if fascinating political tales aimed, I’d suggest, at the political geek…

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Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

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The first target for the blues – to be doing better than last time At GE2010 the Conservatives had a GB national vote share of 37% which was 7.3% bigger than Labour’s total of 29.7%. So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it…

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4

Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4

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4 out of the five last polls have been level-pegging It’s been a big polling day with three surveys already all of them pointing to the fact that the race has got very tight. Just published is the ComRes phone poll for the Indy which has CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4= The UKIP figure is a high for ComRes phone polls and the 30% LAB share equals what the party was on at the last…

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Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB lead

Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB lead

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Neil Findlay – a possible runner in Scots LAB leadership race pic.twitter.com/whhZWYLUSD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 27, 2014 Look beyond Westminster for likely contenders So far the bookmakers appear to have worked on the assumption that it was there for the taking for the so-called Westminster ‘big beasts’ of Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy with Anas Sarwar the Scottish Labour Deputy the main MSP contender. However with both Brown and Sarwar now ruling themselves out, the field opens considerably….

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