Hung parliament now the overwhelming GE15 favourite on the Betfair exchange

Hung parliament now the overwhelming GE15 favourite on the Betfair exchange

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With both LAB & CON continuing to be weak a majority seems remote On one level the rise of UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens changes very little when trying to work out the coming election. The main fights are in LAB-CON battlegrounds where, conventionally, all that matters is the gap between the two main parties. You just leave aside others and focus on the blue and red shares. If CON has margin similar or larger than the…

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The big question is what’s happening in Britain’s Ohio, Florida and Virginia

The big question is what’s happening in Britain’s Ohio, Florida and Virginia

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Applying the US model to GE2015 Midterm day in the US is a good reminder of how different the general election narrative works out in the US compared with the UK. For there, as we all followed closely just two years ago, everything is focused on the so called swing States – the ones that will decide the election. The national polling shares were almost irrelevant – it was the data coming from the select group that was the main…

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CON + LAB slump to record aggregate low in tonight’s Lord Ashcroft weekly phone poll

CON + LAB slump to record aggregate low in tonight’s Lord Ashcroft weekly phone poll

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The trend in the weekly @LordAshcroft phone polls. Not good for LAB pic.twitter.com/Qat6ZaWaDE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 This evening's CON 30% share & LAB 29% are lower than Major did for Tories in 1997 & Brown for LAB at GE2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 The scale of the UKIP/GRN/SNP surges is breathtaking That LAB falls to a record low of 29% is remarkable in itself but what is startling is that in the same…

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If there’s no referendum on the Osborne plan for an elected mayor for Greater Manchester it could set difficult precedents

If there’s no referendum on the Osborne plan for an elected mayor for Greater Manchester it could set difficult precedents

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Osborne setting bad precedent ignoring the Manchester Mayoral Referendum of May 2112. New plan needs new vote. pic.twitter.com/l2xfUsq9EC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 Should previous referenda be ignored? The big announcement from George Osborne today has been that Greater Manchester is to have an elected mayor who’ll preside over regional issues. This has been agreed with leaders of 10 councils in the region. The plan is for the new mayor to oversee policies like transport, social care and…

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Labour’s collapse in the polls is NOT because of a fall-off in Lib Dem switching

Labour’s collapse in the polls is NOT because of a fall-off in Lib Dem switching

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The above monthly averages are based on analysis of data from every single Populus online poll since the firm started its twice weekly series in July 2013 and shows the proportion, before the don’t knows are netted off, of 2010 LDs now saying they will vote Labour. Because of the way Populus presents its data this is a much easier number gathering exercise than it would be with YouGov which only shows the netted off numbers in its datasets. As…

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It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

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This is just one poll but look what happened in YouGov's Scotland survey when Jim Murphy named as Scots LAB leader pic.twitter.com/wunVxK1mdr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2014 Unfortunately YouGov didn’t test out other possible contenders apart from Gordon Brown. The issue for Murphy is that he played such a high profile and sometimes controversial role in the NO IndyRef campaign. Maybe he’s a victim of the apparent mood-shift north of the border to the indpendence question. My view…

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Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

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In Rochester together with @Conor_BurnsMP, @WilliamJHague, @MaryMacleodMP, and 100 enthusiastic members of @Team2015. pic.twitter.com/dNWc3DB6DH — Oliver Cooper (@OliverCooper) November 1, 2014 CON leads amongst those who voted for parties on the ballot at GE10 UKIP’s Survation lead based on NON GE10 voters the most flaky of all Why betting AGAINST UKIP might be value Overnight I’ve been laying (betting against) a UKIP victory on Betfair at odds which put the purples at a 92-94% chance. Bets, as we know, are…

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Who got closest to LAB’s winning margin of 18.36% in South Yorks?

Who got closest to LAB’s winning margin of 18.36% in South Yorks?

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pic.twitter.com/1liyREzEHr — PolPics (@PolPics) November 1, 2014 Time to claim your prize The final result in Thursday South Yorkshire PCC by-elections had LAB ahead of UKIP by 18.36%. If you think that you are near please submit your claim by 1800 tomorrow to Competitions@politicalbetting.com. The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford “Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched this week and has attracted a fair bit of publicity….

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