It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive a figure to be Scottish LAB leader

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This is just one poll but look what happened in YouGov's Scotland survey when Jim Murphy named as Scots LAB leader pic.twitter.com/wunVxK1mdr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2014 Unfortunately YouGov didn’t test out other possible contenders apart from Gordon Brown. The issue for Murphy is that he played such a high profile and sometimes controversial role in the NO IndyRef campaign. Maybe he’s a victim of the apparent mood-shift north of the border to the indpendence question. My view…

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Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

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In Rochester together with @Conor_BurnsMP, @WilliamJHague, @MaryMacleodMP, and 100 enthusiastic members of @Team2015. pic.twitter.com/dNWc3DB6DH — Oliver Cooper (@OliverCooper) November 1, 2014 CON leads amongst those who voted for parties on the ballot at GE10 UKIP’s Survation lead based on NON GE10 voters the most flaky of all Why betting AGAINST UKIP might be value Overnight I’ve been laying (betting against) a UKIP victory on Betfair at odds which put the purples at a 92-94% chance. Bets, as we know, are…

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Who got closest to LAB’s winning margin of 18.36% in South Yorks?

Who got closest to LAB’s winning margin of 18.36% in South Yorks?

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pic.twitter.com/1liyREzEHr — PolPics (@PolPics) November 1, 2014 Time to claim your prize The final result in Thursday South Yorkshire PCC by-elections had LAB ahead of UKIP by 18.36%. If you think that you are near please submit your claim by 1800 tomorrow to Competitions@politicalbetting.com. The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford “Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched this week and has attracted a fair bit of publicity….

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Labour’s melting firewall: almost a third of LD switchers have since left since 2012

Labour’s melting firewall: almost a third of LD switchers have since left since 2012

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Introducing the new swing voters: Purple Labourites and Rainbow Liberals For a long time it looked as if two factors were going to deliver the keys to Downing Street to Ed Miliband. The first was that in the first six months of the parliament, around two-fifths of the Lib Dems’ 2010 vote switched to Labour and appeared firmly embedded there. The second was that a little later, starting in 2012, an increasing share of the Conservatives’ 2010 vote was peeling…

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Local By-Election Results: October 30th 2014

Local By-Election Results: October 30th 2014

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Canvey Island East on Castle Point (Canvey Island Independent Defence) Result: Independent 389 (39% +23%), Canvey Island Independent 323 (32% -16%), Conservative 208 (21% -2%), Labour 76 (8% -5%) Independent GAIN from Canvey Island Independent with a majority of 66 (7%) on a swing of 20% from Canvey Island Independent to Independent Sandsfield East on Neath and Port Talbot (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 641 (61% +8%), UKIP 361 (34%), Conservative 47 (4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 280 (27%)…

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EXCLUSIVE: Survation has Mark Reckless moving to a 15% lead in Rochester

EXCLUSIVE: Survation has Mark Reckless moving to a 15% lead in Rochester

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The local NHS rather than immigration the top issue for Rochester voters ahead of by-election. See Survation chart pic.twitter.com/lwBuP0ntNe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Some good news for UKIP after its PCC by-election flop There’s a new voting intention poll by Survation for the Unite union of Rochester & Strood. The latest shares (with change in brackets since firm’s last poll on 5 October for Mail on Sunday): CON 33% (+2), LAB 16% (-9), LD 1% (-2), UKIP…

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After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself for the South Yorks PCC result

After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself for the South Yorks PCC result

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UKIP poster S Yorks PCC election pic.twitter.com/KJCY4epfQw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Is this another victory for the purples? The big news this morning should come from South Yorkshire where counting takes place in the Police and Crime Commissioner by-election – only the second to be held since these new elected positions were created two years ago. This has been set against the background of the Rotherham scandal which UKIP (see above) has been featuring strongly in its…

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