Reminder. Next PB gathering this Friday Nov 21 – the day after Rochester. Usual place – Dirty Dicks opposite Liverpool Street station London from 1830. We are on the first floor right at the back of the pub.
Ladbrokes betting http://t.co/ZlibygoyoN Rochester turnout. 8/11 below 50%. Evens 50%+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 William Hill betting http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz LDs 1/33 to lose deposit in Rochester. Seems a certainty even though price very tight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR have interesting spread market on UKIP Rochester share. Sell 43% BUY 44.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 I like the SPIN spread market. If you think UKIP will secure more than 44.5%…
conservative @KellyTolhurst appeals to greens/lab/libs: "if you don't want a UKIP MP on Friday, I hope you can support me" #tactical #RSVote — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) November 18, 2014 Will by election voters want to stop UKIP or give Cameron a bloody nose? After a campaign that seems to have been going on forever we are now into the final day of the Rochester and Strood by-election effort. The polls and PBers in the prediction competition all go for UKIP…
New Opinium poll has CON in lead with the LDs down 4 to 5% Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2014 The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication. Whatever at this stage so close to the election and only a couple of days away from…
46% of LAB voters say that having EdM as leader is reason to vote for the party pic.twitter.com/GD6Njqoc5S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2014
What we need now are Scottish constituency polls The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share. It doesn’t really need to be said that the prospect of losing a significant part of its current base of 41 seats North of the border is going to make Labour’s challenge at the General Election that…
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Ashcroft becomes the 4th pollster in a row to have LAB ahead All the movements are very small and well within the margin of error but it will come as a relief in Miliband towers that the national VI polls seem to be moving back to LAB. The shares vary considerably across the firms no more so than today. Just look at the chart to see the very real differences between Ashcroft and Populus – the latter having a CON+LAB…