CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

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Tories helped by UKIP/Farage’s poor expectation management Mood on spread markets is that Rochester good for CON now just 3 seats behind. Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR pic.twitter.com/9v0QsDcpF1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014 This morning’s movement means that the CON price has advanced by 7 seats since SPIN opened its market 11 days ago. The money’s now going on CON to retake the seat next May William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz now make CON odds on 5/6 favourite to win Rochester back…

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Mark Reckless wins Rochester for UKIP with a majority of 7.2%

Mark Reckless wins Rochester for UKIP with a majority of 7.2%

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Reckless Rochester numbers pic.twitter.com/JST7qvcIM7 — Robin Brant (@robindbrant) November 21, 2014 But can he be confident of holding on next May and will it encourage more defectors? In the end the Rochester result was a lot closer than any of the final polls had suggested but the first stage Mark Reckless’s massive gamble has paid off – he’s back again as MP for Rochester. The winning margin was 7.2% which compared with the gaps of 12% and more that we…

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It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls

It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls

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Ukip leader Nigel Farage confident after polls close in Rochester and Strood by-election http://t.co/xcFUuP1xrG pic.twitter.com/tt7wnpqOrW — ITV News (@itvnews) November 20, 2014 Ukip on around 43%, Tories 35%, Labour 17% at #rochesterbyelection, it's said – http://t.co/kXX2nAdFQn — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) November 21, 2014 The 4 Rochester & Strood polls. pic.twitter.com/NeCDkQrtY1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2014

Marf on Rochester and Harry Hayfield’s local and Westminster by-election preview

Marf on Rochester and Harry Hayfield’s local and Westminster by-election preview

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Bramhall South & Woodford on Stockport (Con Defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Liberal Democrats 28, Labour 22, Conservatives 10, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservatives 1,862 (45%), Liberal Democrats 1,373 (33%), UKIP 538 (13%), Labour 369 (9%) Candidates duly nominated: David McDonough (Green), John McGahan (Con), Jeremy Meal (Lib Dem), Kathryn Priestley (Lab) Twenty years may seem like a lifetime in local politics and yet…

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Anybody got any by-election news from Rochester and Strood?

Anybody got any by-election news from Rochester and Strood?

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Mark Reckless with his “wonderful wife” … voting earlier with my wonderful wife. Today is day for people of Rochester and Strood who are my boss pic.twitter.com/OThUwF0po7 — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 20, 2014 Kelly Tolhurst looking a bit strained Grabbed a quick coffee from Boomers in Chatham Dockside before heading out again for #VoteKelly TODAY campaigning pic.twitter.com/c5odwmMERc — Kelly Tolhurst (@KellyTolhurst) November 20, 2014 It would be great to hear from you on the thread below. What’s turnout like?…

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Under single constituency first past the post system national aggregate vote totals don’t mean that much

Under single constituency first past the post system national aggregate vote totals don’t mean that much

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Why the legitimacy of what could appear a perverse general election outcome cannot be questioned There’s lots of talk at the moment about the electoral “system being bust” and “no longer fit for purpose”. What is being pointed to are possible disparities between national aggregate vote shares and the total of MPs each party gets. Clearly in what is now a four party structure it is very likely that many seats will be won with the victor securing fewer than…

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New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

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New Survation/Unite poll in Stockton S has CON MP James Wharton holding on by 2% to one of the most marginal seats in the country — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 The split Survation/Unite Stockton S poll CON 39% (0), LAB 37% (-1), LD 3% (-12), UKIP 18% (+15) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Survation Unite Stockton S poll NOT past voted weighted. 48. 2% of sample were 2010 CON voters when actual figure was 38.9% —…

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