Local elections results. GAINs for Plaid Cymru & UKIP from Ind and for the LDs from LAB

Local elections results. GAINs for Plaid Cymru & UKIP from Ind and for the LDs from LAB

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South Kintyre on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result: SNP 942 (62% +37%), Liberal Democrats 214 (14%, unchanged), Conservative 203 (13% -33%), Labour 156 (10%, no candidate last time) SNP HOLD on the first count with a majority of 728 (48%) on a swing of 18.5% from Lib Dem to SNP Gatehouse (Lib Dem defence) and Southcourt (Lab Defence) on Aylesbury Vale Gatehouse Result: Liberal Democrat 295 (36%), UKIP 267 (32%), Conservative 113 (14%), Labour 113 (14%), Green 28 (3%),…

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The media narrative turns against the purples as the prospect of getting more MPs grows

The media narrative turns against the purples as the prospect of getting more MPs grows

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FT (£) http://t.co/z0pxB8dVw1 reporting that UKIP at war over Neil Hamilton's pursuit of a seat. pic.twitter.com/iGTleyplR3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2014 Whatever happens over Hamilton it will be wrong The former Conservative MP for Tatton who lost out to Martin Bell in 1997 has been much in the news of late as he has tried to be selected for a winnable seat for UKIP at GE15. The latest development, according to a report on the FT’s front page,…

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Local By-Election Preview : December 11th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : December 11th 2014

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South Kintyre on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,133 (46%) Scottish National Party 203, 415 (25%) Independents 63, 138, 167 (15%) Liberal Democrats 351 (14%) Candidates duly nominated: John ARMOUR (SNP), Charlotte HANBURY (Con), Michael KELLY (Lab), Joyce OXBORROW (Lib Dem) A lot…

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SportingIndex cuts the UKIP spread again in effort to entice elusive purple buyers

SportingIndex cuts the UKIP spread again in effort to entice elusive purple buyers

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CON seats up UKIP seat down in today's Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR Commons seats spread prices pic.twitter.com/LL0mEvf6fQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 Meanwhile the CON spread gets even closer to LAB I’m just on the train back from London after having a fascinating chat with the guy who runs the political spread markets at Sporting Index. This is the form of betting that I like the most because it is all about numbers and the more you are right the…

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How the whole political scene is changing – CON+LAB heading for record low

How the whole political scene is changing – CON+LAB heading for record low

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Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing how combined CON+LAB vote heading for record low pic.twitter.com/VsDS4VO3Tn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 It’s hard to work out the long term consequences The overriding theme of this week’s British Election Study conference was that things are changing quite dramatically and we really don’t know where this will end. Thus the certainty that existed about what will happen in Scotland in May has fallen apart in the past few weeks putting into serious doubt…

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Marf on the UKIP Basildon selection

Marf on the UKIP Basildon selection

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Ladbrokes betting http://t.co/ZlibygoyoN South Basildon where Mr. Hamilton is seeking to return to the Commons pic.twitter.com/hz5vJKHY6m — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2014

Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

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A case methinks of hearts over heads As a general rule political betting prices and polling tend to run in parallel particularly in the constituencies. So when earlier this month Lord Ashcroft published his latest round there was a rush of activity when apparently obvious bargain appeared. One such one was Nigel Farage’s Thanet South where following the numbers being available the UKIP price of 2/5 eased to 5/6. An earlier Ashcroft poll had had Farage with a 3% lead….

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