How LAB was completely under-rated by the betting markets as polls opened on May 6th 2010

How LAB was completely under-rated by the betting markets as polls opened on May 6th 2010

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It finished CON 306, LAB 258, LD 57 Quite often in political betting a narrative builds up about the infallibility of the betting markets. That somehow because punters are wagering their own hard-earned cash their judgement is better. In the table above are the commons seat prices at 7am on the morning of May 6th 2010 just as voting started in the general election. Those who had had the foresight to “buy” LAB on SportingIndex at 219 seats would have…

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UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE2015

UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE2015

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The bookies make UKIP the favourite to win in just 5 seats at GE2015. See list pic.twitter.com/lJ3MlN9KRw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 30, 2014 Given the way that the purples dominated the political narrative for a large part of 2014 it comes as something of a surprise to observe, as Antifrank does on his excellent blog, that UKIP is clear favourite in just five seats, all of them currently held by the Tories. The constituencies are listed in the table…

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The SNP’s been issuing lots of data from its latest Panelbase poll but no GE15 voting intentions. Why?

The SNP’s been issuing lots of data from its latest Panelbase poll but no GE15 voting intentions. Why?

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Wiki table of all published Scottish GE15 voting intentions since June. Greens included pic.twitter.com/7YB6bVtyTr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 30, 2014 Could it be that the lead over LAB is fading? Above is a table with all the Scottish GE15 voting intention polls that have been published since June and I was hoping this morning that a final survey could be added to the list. Over the last three nights the SNP has been emailing me detailed findings from its…

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Maybe the whole idea of national voting intention polls has had its day

Maybe the whole idea of national voting intention polls has had its day

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The one thing you can say as we enter election year is that there’s no consistent picture I’ve broken the final polls of 2014 into five broad areas for comparison. CON to LAB swing The most important measure and where there’s a huge variation from the Ipsos-MORI 2.65% swing to the TNS-BMRB and Opinium 7.15%. If it was the latter on May 7th then LAB would probably secure an overall majority even if it lost all but a handful of…

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LAB has a better than 36% chance of winning most votes on May 7th

LAB has a better than 36% chance of winning most votes on May 7th

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The Ladbrokes 7/4 is a good value bet Betting, as I always say, is not about making predictions but deciding whether the chances of something happening are better than the odds available. One that falls into that category at the moment is the 7/4 that Ladbrokes have on LAB winning most votes. The Tories are on 1/2. To my mind this is an over-reaction to events in Scotland where the LAB collapse since the IndyRef amounts to only about 1%…

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LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds – but they may not be on the register and are the least reliable supporters

LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds – but they may not be on the register and are the least reliable supporters

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LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds in Opinium/Observer poll LAB 41 CON 26 GRN 19 LD 6 UKIP 3 http://t.co/4MfnKNPQp4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 After a battering in frecent Scottish polls Labour can take some comfort this morning from an Opinium poll of new voters across England, Scotland and Wales for the Observer that shows the party with a substantial lead. That’s fine except for THREE problems. First Mr. Cameron has a clear lead in approval ratings from this segment….

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The CON, LD and GRN seats that LAB would hope to win to offset projected 38 losses to the SNP in Scotland

The CON, LD and GRN seats that LAB would hope to win to offset projected 38 losses to the SNP in Scotland

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REVISED: LAB's top 38 targets based on swing required. pic.twitter.com/mQv32B0DAN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 @lukeakehurst But 32 of the LAB gains would be CON losses meaning that only LAB would need only 8 more gains from CON to be top party — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014 @lukeakehurst But 32 of the LAB gains would be CON losses meaning that only LAB would need only 8 more gains from CON to be top party — Mike…

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